Arsenal are most likely to sit top of the table at the end of the Premier League season, but more surprisingly, they will be joined in the top five by a shock rival on the final day of the 2025-26 campaign, according to Opta.
With gameweek 10 of 38 nearing its conclusion, and the third and final international break of autumn closing in fast, fans are starting to firm up their predictions over their club’s fortunes this season.
But the stats boffins have crunched the numbers based on the first 10 performances of each team since the start of the season, and are confident that it will finally be Arsenal’s time to claim the Premier League title after a string of near-misses.
As per the statisticians, Mikel Arteta’s side are predicted to claim a mammoth 81.44 after their unbeaten start, giving them a triumphant 71 per cent chance at lifting the Premier League trophy at the end of May.
Arsenal currently sit six points clear at the top of the table on the heels of another dominant win against Burnley on Saturday afternoon.
Should the predictions prove correct, the Gunners would also be out of sight of their closest rivals, Manchester City, who have a much lower chance of recapturing their Premier League title at 12.63 per cent.
Arsenal are predicted to finally win the Premier League after a strong start to their campaign
At the bottom end of the spectrum things look dark for Wolves’ chance of staying in the league
Pep Guardiola’s men, who sit second in the standings, are in line to secure 70.73 points, which is someway off Arsenal’s predicted haul.
In promising news for Liverpool fans, the predictions appear to back the Reds’ reversal of their current fortunes, after Arne Slot & Co got their season back on track on Saturday with a win against Aston Villa.
The red side of Merseyside are anticipated to track Man City to second place all the way, and accumulate a predicted 69.97 points in the process, finishing third.
Playing European football next season should be all but assured, with Liverpool having a 72.75 per cent chance of seeing Champions League action, and a 9.33 per cent chance of featuring in the Europa League draw.
Chelsea, who are predicted to come fourth, look similarly well-placed to play in Europe next term, but their hopes of capturing the title are minimal, with only a 2.47 per cent chance of doing so at the end of their campaign.
But more cheered by their prospects could be high-flying Crystal Palace, who are predicted to make a surprise appearance rounding out the top five, with Champions League football almost certainly on the cards to boot.
One season on from featuring in the Conference League, the Eagles are predicted a promising 25.04 per cent chance of a place at Europe’s top table, and an 11.07 per cent chance of muscling into the Europa League, where they narrowly missed out on playing during their current term.
Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Manchester United are predicted to round out the top eight teams with a fighting chance of some form of European football, but amid a worrying blip in form, last year’s Europa League winners Tottenham are predicted to finish in the bottom half of the table in 11th.
Although Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United are enjoying an uptick of form, a spot in the top six is some way off
Thomas Frank’s side slumped to their most concerning defeat yet in a 1-0 loss to Chelsea on Saturday evening, with their woeful home form showing no side of reversal.
While none of the newly promoted teams this term – Burnley, Leeds, or Sunderland – are predicted to break into the top half of the standings, all three appear destined for a consecutive season in the top flight.
Instead, it’s bad news for three Premier League recent mainstays, such as Nottingham Forest, who are not expected to experience a relegation-stopping uptick in form under new manager Sean Dyche.
The Tricky Trees are predicted a 43.13 per cent chance of relegation by Opta, after accruing only 37.31 total points.
Burnley, their closest rivals in the predicted table, will therefore escape relegation by a whisper thanks to a predicted haul of 37.51 points.
Premier League fans may also have to wave goodbye to West Ham, who were able to claw back a win against Newcastle on Sunday, but are not expected to improve on their 49.73 per cent chance of relegation.
Currently condemned are also Wolves, who sit rock bottom of the top on a miserly two points.
The Molineux-based side are not predicted to win more than 25 more points over the course of the season, despite sacking their manager Vitor Pereira this weekend.
As a result, Wolves have an unnerving 87.84 per cent chance of relegation after 10 matches played.
