The Conservatives have placed 11 of their MPs on a defection watch list amid fears more could follow Robert Jenrick to Reform.
Kemi Badenoch dramatically sacked Mr Jenrick from her shadow cabinet on Thursday after his plot to make a move was uncovered by the party, with the Tory leader on Friday branding him a “liar” who can’t be trusted.
Former Tory cabinet minister Michael Gove warned Mr Jenrick’s reputation will be scarred by his “treachery” and said his scathing attack on his former party would inflict lasting damage on his reputation.
But senior figures close to Ms Badenoch are concerned that Nigel Farage’s call to action – for anyone considering a move to do so in time for the 7 May local elections or risk being rejected by the party – could trigger other departures.
The watch list, drawn up before Mr Jenrick’s defection, and seen by The Independent, includes former ministers and veteran MPs Suella Braverman, Sir John Hayes, Mark Francois, Esther McVey, Andrew Rosindell and Sir Desmond Swayne.
Also included on the list are MPs from the 2024 intake, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas and Lewis Cocking; as well as shadow ministers Matt Vickers and Joy Morrissey.
It is understood that Nick Timothy had been seen as a flight risk until he accepted the job of replacing Mr Jenrick as shadow justice secretary. But one insider admitted that “the number of possibles” stretches to more than 20 MPs.
“The party is in a fight for its survival,” one senior figure said. “If these MPs all defect by 7 May, then it is pretty much game over.”
There is an admission, though, that the party leadership was “completely blindsided” by Mr Jenrick’s plot to “jump ship in a damaging way” to the Tories, adding: “We just don’t know who, what, where next with the defections”.
The watch list is “almost the entire membership” of the right-wing Common Sense Group within the Tories, which had previously backed Mr Jenrick. But Mrs Badenoch, on Friday, insisted that “pretty much all of Rob’s former supporters have come to me and said sorry” in the wake of his defection.
She suggested that his decision to quit the party would bring stability to the Tories, telling The Times: “We have been destabilised for too long, the traitors are Farage’s problem now, not mine. He’ll have to watch out.”
The defiant Tory leader accused Mr Jenrick of wanting to “burn the Conservative Party to the ground”, adding: “That is what Reform wants, not to hold Labour to account or transform this country for the better, but to destroy our party. I am never going to let that happen.”
Launching a sensational attack on her former shadow justice secretary, Mrs Badenoch also said Mr Jenrick “tells a lot of lies and you can’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth”. She also claimed his defection was because “he doesn’t think that he could be leader” of the Tory party.
She told GB News: “This is a man who was asked yesterday morning, ‘are you going to defect?’ And he said, ‘never’ to the chief whip. And then they found evidence he was going to quit.”
Her comments came as Mr Jenrick said he has “no idea” if any of his former Tory colleagues will follow his his lead.
When asked if he knows how many Conservative colleagues will follow him to Mr Farage’s party, he told the BBC: “I have no idea, and I haven’t spoken to colleagues or asked them to do so that.”
He said that while he believes many in the Conservative Party are “good people”, he said the “majority of MPs in Westminster don’t believe in the things that I believe in.”
Reform UK’s newest MP added: “We’ll have to see, that’s ultimately a decision for them – it’s deeply personal. And then it would be a decision for Nigel and Reform as to whether they were able to be accepted in.”
The Independent has contacted all 11 MPs, and almost all denied they had any plans to defect.
But one Tory insider noted: “I’m afraid Jenrick showed us that people deny they are defecting until they actually defect.”
Mr Thomas, the MP for Bromsgrove, said he was “appalled and disappointed” to be included on the list, while Ms Braverman said she had no plans to defect.
And Mr Francois, who has previously spoken of his anger over the way Reforms’ performance in the 2024 saw some of his Tory friends to lose their seats, took to Talk TV to deny he will make a move. Meanwhile, Sir Desmond pointed to his blog criticising his former colleague, Danny Kruger, for his defection last year.
Sir John told The Independent he “will not defect” and said he had advised colleagues who might be considering it to “wait and see” because there could be a deal between the Tories and Reform after the next election.
He said: “Robert Jenrick’s departure from the Conservative Party is a great loss. He has been our most capable and effective shadow minister, being impressive in the Commons and beyond it, where he is widely admired.
“Notwithstanding recent events, our close personal relationship will, I am sure, continue to flourish.”
But The Independent has learnt that one senior Tory MP was wined and dined by Reform deputy leader Richard Tice last week to discuss defection, but rejected the offer.
Others, such as Ms McVey, have been highly critical of Ms Badenoch’s decision to sack Mr Jenrick from the party. She said: “I would have advised her not to have done this. There will be a backlash.”
Another MP on the list added: “I think it was a mistake letting Robert go. He represents what most of us think. I don’t know what the future holds now.”
One MP said of the watch list: “It’s almost as if Kemi is trying to force the right of the party out to join Reform. It’s a ridiculous list”, while another claimed it demonstrated “panic” from the top team.
It comes after Mr Farage said the local and national elections on May 7 represented a “deadline” after which no further Tory defections to Reform would be accepted.
Mr Jenrick’s defection occurred just days after former Tory minister Nadhim Zahawi defected to Reform, the latest in a string of high-profile Conservative figures who have jumped ship, including Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Jonathan Gullis and Nadine Dorries.
