With just 12 matches to play left in the Premier League season, there’s an argument to be made that, as temperatures gradually begin to warm up, we are reaching the business end of the 2025-26 campaign.
At the top of the heap, Arsenal fans are daring to dream, six points clear of their closest rivals Manchester City. But while Pep Guardiola’s serial champions can never be counted out, there are no other serious contenders for the Premier League crown.
But what of the rest of the pack? As with this season, the English teams’ progression in Europe’s competitions is likely to make the side that finishes fifth on the final day a Champions League contender next term.
And with it still eye-wateringly tight between the chasing pack, the race for a place at Europe’s top table still seems entirely open.
Here, Daily Mail Sport’s expert runs the rule over who looks likeliest to nab a space in among the top five – and who will need to do more to secure a shot at glory overseas.
ASTON VILLA (Current position: 3rd)
Why they believe they can make the top five
They’ve done most of the hard work. An eight-point gap over Liverpool with 13 games left is an incredibly strong position, especially with the entire bottom seven still to play and Liverpool showing no signs of going on a run.
In Morgan Rogers, too, they have one of the finest players in the Premier League.
The biggest reason why they might not make it
Injuries in midfield. Being without Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and, especially, Youri Tielemans is a huge blow for Villa’s run-in.
I was at Bournemouth for Villa’s draw at the weekend, a game they should really have lost, and they lacked any sort of fluidity or incision through the middle.
Star man Morgan Rogers has been a huge asset to Aston Villa this season and he will surely continue to shore up their strong position
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Record signing Amadou Onana can be the answer in a threadbare midfield. He’s got the strength and power to dominate games, he made some crucial blocks at the Vitality Stadium, and his passing is often under-rated but, as has been the story of his Villa career so far, he also struggles to stay fit. Emery now needs him to do so more than ever.
James Sharpe
MANCHESTER UNITED (Current position: 4th)
Why they believe they can make the top five
We always knew there was a decent United team struggling to get out under Ruben Amorim, and Michael Carrick has finally got them playing to the sum of their parts.
United are in fourth place with a decent run to the end of the season, and no European football or cup distractions. The door is wide open.
The biggest reason why they might not make it
The only problem would be if United lose the momentum building under Carrick and end up missing out by a few points.
They face all five of the teams currently below them in the table over the remaining 13 games – notably Chelsea and Liverpool over two weeks in April and early May – and those results could be decisive.
The arrival of Michael Carrick has ushered in a new dawn at Manchester United this season
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Although Carrick and his staff are bringing out the best in most of the squad, Benjamin Sesko needs to step up.
United’s £73.7million summer signing might have four goals in his last five games, but there is room for improvement and he deserves to be on the bench. Another big miss against Tottenham on Saturday could have been costly.
Chris Wheeler
CHELSEA (Current position: 5th)
Why they should believe they can make the top five
They have the squad, with Cole Palmer getting fitter with every game, and they have the head coach, with Liam Rosenior currently four for four in the Premier League after quickly winning over his new players.
Chelsea finished fourth last season, and are in a healthy enough position now sitting fifth. The Champions League is where those inside the club believe they belong.
The biggest reason why Chelsea might not make it
There is that sneaking suspicion that some naivety could creep in which might cost them on occasion. For example, they’ve had seven different players dismissed this season so are well on their way to a red card XI.
If injuries crop up with key men – such as to Palmer, Joao Pedro, Enzo Fernandez or Moises Caicedo – then they may struggle in matches.
With Cole Palmer getting fitter by the day, Chelsea should look to threaten in the run-in
The key man Chelsea need to see more from until end of the season
Liam Delap. No club wants a non-striking striker, and Delap, while injured during this campaign, has a single Premier League goal in 704 minutes.
Joao Pedro has been in impressive form of late, and Palmer got that first-half hat-trick versus Wolves, but Delap needs to find the net and some confidence with it.
Kieran Gill
LIVERPOOL (Current position: 6th)
Why they should believe they can make the top five
Because they are the champions. When at their best, Liverpool can beat anyone – as shown by victories over the likes of Real Madrid this season. Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike, the two summer signings, are flourishing – and when it clicks, any defence should be terrified.
Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz are hitting their stride at Liverpool after arriving last summer
The biggest reason why they might not make it
How long have you got? There are plenty. Across the last 20 league games they have won just six. If they replicate that form in the last 13, they will finish nowhere near the Champions League places. Injuries and a lack of squad depth will undoubtedly play a role.
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Mohamed Salah. His player of the year gong last season was the easiest pick judges have had in a long time but this term, the Egyptian has looked distinctly average. Just four league goals and none since November 1 – though he missed six games at AFCON – is a huge worry.
Fellow forward Cody Gakpo also only has two goals in his last 15 league games and that must change, plus the vulnerabilities of the defence are glaringly obvious.
Lewis Steele
BRENTFORD (Current position: 7th)
Why they believe they can make the top five
Because they have one of the best Brazilian strikers in Premier League history, that’s why. Igor Thiago has 17 league goals already this season, more than any other Brazilian in a single campaign in the competition. Only four fewer than Erling Haaland.
And because Brentford are a club that knows who they are and what they are doing, even when those around them question their decisions.
The biggest reason why they might not make it
Their inexperience at being in such situations, though Jordan Henderson can help bridge that gap, and the fact they now have to make up ground on clubs who are far bigger than them and starting to find consistent form.
Jordan Henderson brings a wealth of experience to the team but he stands almost alone
Brentford have already exceeded all expectations after a summer in which they lost a host of key players and their manager so even a Europa League finish would be a remarkable achievement.
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Nearly everyone wrote off Keith Andrews before a ball was kicked after he replaced Thomas Frank but has proven all those doubters wrong. He just needs to keep his head, stick with what’s got them into this position and not let the noise creep in.
Add to that Dango Ouattara, the club’s record signing. Goals in back-to-back games and he will be crucial in lightening the load on Thiago’s shoulders who has so far scored nearly 45 per cent of the club’s goals.
James Sharpe
EVERTON (Current position: 8th)
Why they should believe they can make the top five
Why not? The top five is almost certainly a step too far but David Moyes may refer to that old adage: reach for the stars and if you miss out, you land on the clouds. Noting that, Europa League or the Conference League should be a genuine goal.
With a solid defence and exciting players like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Iliman Ndiaye, Everton are fun to watch, plus inexperienced striker Thierno Barry is only getting better.
The biggest reason why they might not make it
The Toffees only lost one of their first seven competitive games at Hill Dickinson Stadium but their new home has been less prosperous since then, with only two wins in the nine that followed those early months.
With both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Chelsea to come to the banks of the Mersey, their home form must improve. A lack of goals may be an issue, too, and Everton have vastly over-performed their expected goals (xG) tally.
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Key defender Jarrad Branthwaite was their best player across the two seasons before this but has started just one league game due to a nasty injury this term. His recent return to fitness can only help them.
Jarrad Branthwaite is a standout for Everton but due to injury the Toffees have been unable to call upon him this season
Summer signing Tyler Dibling must ‘pull his finger out’ according to Moyes, especially with stricken Jack Grealish – the star man in the early months of his loan at Everton – now ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Lewis Steele
SUNDERLAND (Current position: 9th)
Why they can believe they can make the top five…
Massive long shot. In the last two seasons, finishing fifth has required 66 points and this would mean collecting another 30 points, but Sunderland are only six points behind Chelsea in fifth and seven of their remaining 13 games are at home where they have proved such a force and remain unbeaten.
With 36 points in the bag the hard part is done. They are virtually safe. Mission number one accomplished, pressure off, why not dream a little, shoot for the European places and see where it takes them. Up front, Brian Brobbey is growing in stature with each game. Chelsea, who they beat at Stamford Bridge in October, are visitors at the Stadium of Light for the final fixture of the season.
The biggest reason why they might not make it…
Away form. Only 10 points on the road all season and only three from eight games away from Wearside since that heady triumph at Chelsea in October.
It is always trickier once the momentum of promotion fades. When the element of surprise from a freshly assembled team is gone and opponents have started to work out is going on and treat you with a little more respect.
Sunderland’s away form this winter is a far cry from their impressive win against Chelsea
The key man they need to see more from until end of the season
Granit Xhaka has missed the last three with an ankle injury. Sunderland crashed three past Burnley without him but lost heavily at West Ham and Arsenal and need him back. He is their on-pitch leader, the tactical keystone for Regis Le Bris, in the heart of his team.
He drives them forward and is crucial to their defensive organisation. Le Bris admitted ahead of the Liverpool game he could be without Xhaka for another three weeks.
Matt Barlow
