One of the most competitive races in Iowa’s history has ended as expected. With 15 percent of precincts reporting, Decision Desk HQ has announced that Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-02) has beaten her opponent, former IA State Senator Jim Carlin, 76 percent to 24 percent, making her the Republican nominee for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA).
Decision Desk HQ projects Ashley Hinson wins the IA US Senate Republican Primary#DecisionMade: 9:07 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/j1b6akp4rP
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 3, 2026
When two-term Sen. Ernst made the choice not to seek re-election, it became open season for her seat, including two ambitious Democrats who see this as a chance to flip the seat blue in deeply red Iowa.
It’s primary day! One big race today is #IASen’s Democratic primary between state legislators Josh Turek & Zach Wahls.
Winner will face Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), the likely GOP nominee. This is a red state seat that Democrats need to compete in to have a shot at a Senate majority. pic.twitter.com/wWeEuh9zLW
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 2, 2026
Hinson received the endorsement of Ernst, IA Gov. Kim Reynolds, and President Donald Trump. When Hinson launched her campaign in September 2025, she committed to being President Trump’s “top ally in the United States Senate.” Hinson praised the One Big, Beautiful Bill and proudly upheld being part of the majority that shepherded its passage through the House.
“What I have tried to do as a member of Congress, and hopefully will continue to do in the United States Senate, is focus on policies that are going to make life more affordable in the long run for Iowans, returning as many taxpayer dollars as we can,” she said.
Thank you, @POTUS! pic.twitter.com/ZcKtlXhkE9
— Ashley Hinson (@hinsonashley) June 2, 2026
Read More: LIVE: Election Results – California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
The 2026 Battle for the Senate Is Still Likely Republican
Carlin promoted his work as a state senator to investigate wrongdoing at a state Veterans facility, touting his help in passing the state’s Heartbeat Law, and being an early sponsor of a transgender bathroom bill. Carlin was endorsed by retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
“The work I’ve done, including work on a senior property tax freeze, was about you,” he said. “It’s about seniors, it’s about veterans, it’s about children and protecting them. And right now, I don’t think the government is serving us. I think it’s actually working against the economic interests of the middle class.”
Hinson was the clear favorite to advance to the November general election, where she will most likely face Democrat State Rep. Josh Turek, who is leading in his contest. Decision Desk HQ rates this race as Likely Republican.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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