What will happen next in the standoff with Iran? Donald Trump drew a red line nearly two months ago, and the regime brutally crossed it. Trump acknowledged this yesterday, announcing that US intelligence estimates the mullahs murdered more than 32,000 Iranian protesters last month:
NEW: Trump says the Islamic regime in Iran killed 32,000 protesters.
“I feel very badly for the people of Iran. They have lived in hell.” pic.twitter.com/4YDWqnd78D
— Kassy Akiva (@KassyAkiva) February 20, 2026
Since those massacres, Trump has assembled one of the largest naval and air armadas the Middle East has ever seen. He has demanded that Ali Khamenei stop all uranium enrichment activities, put serious limits on its ballistic-missile systems, and end support for terror proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Iran keeps trying to offer a sequel to the deal the mullahs cut with Barack Obama, a JCPOA-Lite that only addresses their nuclear-weapons development – and that only for the next three to five years.
Axios offers a look at the full spread of Trump’s options, the first of which is ridiculous and the last of which is insufficient:
The Trump administration is prepared to consider a proposal that allows Iran “token” nuclear enrichment if it leaves no possible path to a bomb, a senior U.S. official told Axios.
That’s what Obama did, too. Trump has consistently called the JCPOA the worst deal in American history, in part because it didn’t do anything to end Iran’s drive to develop nuclear weapons, and in part because it didn’t address any of the other threats Iran poses. It’s highly implausible that Trump arrayed the current force posture against Iran to just get a JCPOA II: Token Nuke Boogaloo agreement. On the other hand, the other limited-strike option seems to miss the point too:
- The adviser said the Pentagon had presented Trump with numerous options.
- “They have something for every scenario. One scenario takes out the ayatollah and his son and the mullahs,” the adviser said, referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, who is seen as a potential successor. “What the president chooses no one knows. I don’t think he knows.”
- A second source confirmed a plan to kill Khamenei and his son was floated to Trump several weeks ago.
Taking Khamenei and his princeling off the chessboard would be satisfying, but it would change very little. They are not the only mullahs in the clique that runs the theocracy in Iran. The other mullahs are almost certainly not living in close connection to each other, either, likely housed in residential districts where civilian collateral deaths would be almost a certainty. A decapitation strike would have to be timed for a plenary meeting of the mullahs, and the Iranian regime would be idiotic to call one at this time. This option might take the Khameneis out, but another mullah will take their place, and so on. It would end nothing.
So what’s next? Whatever it is, it may come quickly. The Times of Israel reports today that an “unbridgeable impasse” has emerged in the indirect talks between the US and Iran, likely over Trump’s demand for a full-spectrum retreat by Iran. It’s bad enough that the Iranians are refusing to read US proposals on missile limits:
Two rounds of Iran-US talks have stalled on core issues, from uranium enrichment to missiles and sanctions relief.
When Omani mediators delivered an envelope from the US side containing missile‑related proposals, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refused even to open it and returned it, a source familiar with the talks said.
After talks in Geneva on Tuesday, Araghchi said the sides had agreed on “guiding principles,” but the White House said there was still distance between them.
The consensus seems to be that Iran miscalculated, perhaps based on Trump’s lack of immediate response to the massacres. The mullahs may have thought Trump would take a token deal to save face, a la Obama, but they are now stuck:
Some regional officials said Tehran was dangerously miscalculating by holding out for concessions, with US President Donald Trump boxed in by his own military buildup — unable to scale it back without losing face if there is no firm commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.
“Both sides are sticking to their guns,” said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and Iran specialist, adding that nothing meaningful can emerge “unless the US and Iran walk back from their red lines — which I don’t think they will.
“What Trump can’t do is assemble all this military, and then come back with a ‘so‑so’ deal and pull out the military. I think he thinks he’ll lose face,” he said. “If he attacks, it’s going to get ugly quickly.”
How quickly? Does a mess-hall upgrade in the theater tell us anything?
IYKYK. It’s on. https://t.co/9ldEenICVw
— Buzz Patterson (@BuzzPatterson) February 20, 2026
While there is no official confirmation, a common belief suggests the US military serves its troops a ‘last meal’ with a fancy menu including steak, lobster, and pie, before sending them on a war front. Some link the hearty meal to a dangerous deployment or an extended mission. The theory has circulated on social media for years and often resurfaces during periods of geopolitical tensions. …
Last year, in June, similar reports surfaced on social media on June 18 after military soldier Antonia Lopez posted a lavish meal video that went viral on social media. The day also coincided with the US Army’s birthday. In the clip, Lopez showed that she was given steak, lobster, caprese salad, asparagus, hush puppies, a baked potato, shrimp cocktail, fruit salad, garlic bread, cake, and pecan pie in the meal.
Days after the video was posted, the United States carried out military strikes on Iranian targets on June 22.
Well, that’s as good a signal as any, especially since there does not appear to be any particular holiday this weekend to celebrate.
Yesterday, I spoke with an old friend about the standoff and the options in this crisis. Jim Hanson of the Middle East Forum, AKA Blackfive back in the day, and I talked about Trump’s options, why a limited strike is not a realistic option, and what may come next if the regime falls. It’s not all peaches and cream on the other side, but the current status quo may be so untenable that the US and its regional allies are willing to take the risk.
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