The 2026 Oscars nominations won’t be announced until January 22, 2026. However, a lot of movies have gotten people talking, heating up contention chuntering massively. The Best Supporting Actress category is already chocked full of potential nominees.
Movies like Sinners and Weapons have come out blazing as box office hits as well as critical favourites. This puts them in with a decent shot right out of the gate. Other movies, despite not being released yet, have garnered praise from advanced screenings and festival premieres. So, with all of that information to cumulate, let’s break down our early predictions for Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars.
5. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
It may come as a shock to many that Dwayne Johnson is having his name thrown into the mix for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars. This is by no means to discredit his abilities as an actor, but it is not very often that a megastar action hero finds himself up for a coveted golden statue. For his transformative role as the legendary mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr, Johnson is re-teaming with Emily Blunt, who stars as his wife Dawn.
As the saying goes that “behind every man there is a great woman”, Blunt’s rendition will possibly be the weight of the picture as the woman living offside with the dangers that come with such a brutal sport. Of course, the athlete is the one putting their body on the line, but it is behind closed doors where another battle can rage – one of constant worry and anxiety. In The Smashing Machine, indie darling filmmaker Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems), lifts the lid on an aspect of MMA that isn’t often talked about. And it’s safe to assume that this is where the real meat and bones of the story will be. To that, it seems incredibly likely that Emily Blunt, who has arguably been snubbed over and over in the past, could land her second ever Oscar nod for Best Supporting Actress. She was last nominated in 2024 for her role in Oppenheimer.
4. Zoey Deutch – Nouvelle Vague
Richard Linklater‘s Nouvelle Vague represents the acclaimed director’s love letter to the revolutionary magic of the French New Wave, depicting the making of critic-turned-filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard‘s iconic Breathless (1960). Given Linklater’s impressive track record of guiding actors to awards recognition – from Ethan Hawke‘s multiple nominations to Patricia Arquette‘s Oscar win for Boyhood – and the Academy’s historical affinity for films that celebrate cinema itself, this meta-narrative about moviemaking certainly provides fertile ground for recognition.
Rising star Zoey Deutch, who portrays Jean Seberg in the film, feels well-positioned to prosper from both the prestige of a Linklater collaboration and the Academy’s tendency to embrace films that honor the art of filmmaking. With movies about movies consistently performing well at the Oscars – from Sunset Boulevard to The Artist to The Disaster Artist – Deutch’s supporting performance in this love letter to cinema history could provide the perfect vehicle for her first Oscar nomination. This would follow on from her Hollywood Rising-Star Award at the Deauville American Film Festival in July 2025, as well as her feature in Forbes 30 Under 30 in 2020, accolades the Oscar voters tend to take note of.
3. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
As well as earning himself a staggering 11 Oscar nominations, visionary writer/director Paul Thomas Anderson has a plush history in directing his actors to nominations. Known for his daring approach to filmmaking, exemplified with his sophomore feature film Boogie Nights, Anderson was quickly likened to Quentin Tarantino due to his unique approach to storytelling. Every movie he has made has been different to his last, but common themes re-emerge, exploring stories of dysfunctional families, loneliness, redemption, and regret.
As his largest budget film to date, One Battle After Another is quickly being described as Anderson’s most commercial movie, with the trailer demonstrating that he is set to take his first dive into action movies. Now, it’s common knowledge that action movies do not typically fare well with the Oscars. However, for an ensemble piece with a runtime of close to 3 hours, it’s safe to assume that the talent involved will have plenty of time to exhibit their skills through character studies and development. To that, rising star Teyana Taylor could be in with a decent shot at Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars. With the Academy’s history of both launching new stars and rewarding seasoned performers who take bold risks, Taylor’s collaboration with Anderson could provide the perfect storm of artistic credibility and career-defining performance that Oscar voters consistently embrace.
2. Amy Madigan – Weapons
In early 2025, Sinners proved that critics are becoming more and more open to the horror genre with each passing year. A few months later, Weapons served as another shining example of that. The interesting thing to note here is that neither movie serves up a traditional straight-up horror flick. Instead, they divert expectations and dip their toes in several sub-genres. While this could give both movies a solid chance at a Best Picture nod at the 2026 Oscars, to date, only 8 horror movies have managed such a feat. But this doesn’t mean they can’t thrive in other categories.
Weapons technically has no lead character, with the film being split into 6 chapters using a non-linear format that ultimately ties all of the characters together. Out of such a staggering ensemble of thespians, Amy Madigan enthrals with her transformative rendition of Gladys, a woman who holds the key to the chaos and heartache of the film’s events. Her performance is eery, intense, and impossible to take your eyes off, no matter how much you may want to out of terror. With her performance, Madigan dances a fine line between subtlety, menace, and intensity. If a Best Supporting Actress nomination comes her way, this would mark her second nomination in the category after her role in 1986’s Twice in a Lifetime.
1. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHXDie_Y730
As potentially the most unanimously warmly-received movie at Cannes 2025, Sentimental Value went on to win the Grand Prix. That alone puts it in great standing at the 2026 Oscars. Possibly Joachim Trier‘s most crowd-pleasing movie to date, the film explores the complex relationship of a man and his daughters as he attempts to reconnect with them. Sure, we’ve seen this trope explored and examined time and time again, but the sheer power of every main character is hard to ignore, lifting the picture from melodrama to poignant storytelling through profound character studies.
Out of those deeply rich character studies, Elle Fanning shines bright as Rachel Kemp, a woman who inadvertently steps in the way of the man trying to bond with his estranged daughters. At its core, Sentimental Value is a story of family ties. However, it is with the supporting actors where the grander aspects of the story unravel, to which Fanning carries masterfully. If she lands a Best Supporting Actress nomination at the 2026 Oscars, this would mark her first ever nod after a prosperous career that has spanned for over two decades now. A testament to her prowess, rising from a child star to A-list thespian.
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