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DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 17: Head coach Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos looks on prior to the AFC Divisional Playoff game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field At Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
On the eve of the AFC Championship, the Denver Broncos sit one win away from their first Super Bowl appearance since 2015.
The 14-3 New England Patriots stand in their way in what should be an epic showdown in Mile High.
As Yahoo Sports noted, with Jarrett Stidham taking over at quarterback, Denver’s margin for error is slim.
To advance to San Francisco, the Denver Broncos must consistently deliver in five key areas:
- Avoid turnovers on offense
- Win the line of scrimmage and establish the run
- Generate explosive plays offensively
- Create constant pressure on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
- Prevent explosive plays defensively
If Denver can check those boxes, the Broncos will have a real shot to knock off New England at Empower Field, one of the NFL’s toughest environments.
Broncos Offensive Keys to the Game
For the Denver Broncos offense, everything starts with ball security.
The Patriots have thrived this postseason by capitalizing on mistakes, recording six takeaways in two playoff games.
With Jarrett Stidham making his first start of the season in the AFC Championship, the Broncos cannot afford to give New England short fields.
They must control the momentum and flow of the game from the start.
Sean Payton made it clear this week that he trusts Stidham:
“I’m not worried about Stiddy in this game,” Payton said Friday. “I’m worried about everyone else, and how we play.”
Winning the line of scrimmage is just as critical.
Based on 2025 advanced metrics and postseason performance, Denver’s offensive line presents a clear matchup advantage against New England’s defensive front.
The Broncos offensive line is the only unit to allow fewer than 13 sacks in 2025.
Keeping a clean pocket for Stidham in just his fifth career NFL start will be critical.
Even with J.K. Dobbins ruled out, Denver must establish enough of a run threat to stay out of predictable passing situations.
The Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, but can be susceptible at times to runs to the outside.
If Denver can protect the football and keep the Patriots honest up front, explosive plays will follow.
Broncos Defensive Keys to the Game
If the Denver Broncos are going to advance in Bo Nix’s absence, their defense may be the deciding factor.
Denver’s pass rush is built to swing this matchup.
The Broncos rank near the top of the league in every major pressure metric.
They finished second in pressure rate (40.7%), third in pass-rush win rate (45%), and first in sacks with 68 on the season.
DPOY finalist Nik Bonitto has led the charge this season with 14 sacks.
He will have to make big-time plays in big situations to change the momentum of this game.
That pressure profile matters against Drake Maye, who has struggled when defenses collapse the pocket in these playoffs.
In his first two career playoff games, Maye has been sacked 10 times and fumbled six times.
Denver should look to emulate the Houston Texans defensive game plan with their dominant edge rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
At the same time, Denver must remain disciplined on the back end.
New England ranks second in the NFL in explosive plays of 20 yards or more as Drake Maye leads the NFL with a 72% completion percentage on passes with 20 or more air yards.
The Broncos will look to counter the Patriots explosive offense as they are No. 1 in explosive-play rate allowed (6.7%), No. 1 in red-zone defense (42.6%), No. 2 on third down (33.8%), and No. 8 in total EPA.
Months of preparation have led to this: 60 minutes at Empower Field, the altitude, a roaring crowd, and a chance for Denver to shock the world and advance to the Super Bowl.
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