Well, to be clear, it appears that many of the sanctions have already been lifted, as Iranian oil shipments are flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, it appears, is already over, even before the official signing we expect on Friday. The lifting of sanctions on oil-related exports appears to be point #10 in the leaked but unconfirmed Memorandum of Understanding.
🚨 The Iranian television is broadcasting from the Strait of Hormuz. and claims: At least 3 oil tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours. pic.twitter.com/13txRGNFEv
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 17, 2026
Oil markets may like that a lot, with good reason. Oil prices have dropped like a rock since the announcement of the MOU. But if you aren’t a fan of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, you might not be as pleased. According to sources in Lebanon, Iran has promised to open the floodgates and start pouring cash into their proxies, which they call the Axis of Resistance.
“Two regional diplomats briefed by Tehran said #Iran had assured #Hezbollah it would receive more funds once assets are unfrozen, while a senior Lebanese source said Iran had promised funds as soon as possible, and another Lebanese source said Iran was expected to boost…
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) June 17, 2026
“Two regional diplomats briefed by Tehran said #Iran had assured #Hezbollah it would receive more funds once assets are unfrozen, while a senior Lebanese source said Iran had promised funds as soon as possible, and another Lebanese source said Iran was expected to boost support.”
This may, of course, be Iranian spin, testing the waters now that the MOU has been “digitally signed.” Iran has a history of stretching as far as it can to see what it can get away with, and without seeing the MOU in its entirety, we can only go off what has been leaked and reported in multiple outlets.
Lebanon, by the way, is not pleased, since tying the war in Lebanon to the Iran War links its sovereignty to Iran.
BREAKING: Lebanon is also insisting Israel-Lebanon negotiations remain entirely separate from the U.S.-Iran MOU.
There is zero reason Israel and Hezbollah should be tied to those talks.
If Israel chooses to independently decimate Hezbollah, it should have every right to do so. pic.twitter.com/2sSM0YQ8y3
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) June 17, 2026
Iran has, in effect, asserted its sovereignty over Lebanon, and the United States has implicitly conceded the point by agreeing that a cease-fire in the United States’ war with Iran includes an Israeli cease-fire in Lebanon. Hezbollah is still sending drones and missiles into Israel, and it seems like Israel is supposed to accept that and perhaps withdraw from all Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah’s media office said Iran had publicly announced its support to Hezbollah and that help was continuing.
Asked whether Hezbollah would receive a share of released Iranian funds, the media office told Reuters Tehran would continue to support Lebanon “regardless of the details of the retrieval of its funds”.
A U.S. official said Washington had told Iran “funds will not be unfrozen if they are going to any terror organization”.
“The MoU also incentivizes Iran to keep proxy groups in check, as if they fail to do so, they will be unable to access any benefits of the agreement,” the official said.
The Israeli prime minister’s office and Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Iran has maintained financial support to Hezbollah through years of crippling U.S. sanctions: it transferred $1 billion to the group in the first 10 months of 2025, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.
PRICE OF WAR
The war has inflicted huge costs on Lebanon: Israeli forces have uprooted a fifth of the population and razed southern villages, saying Hezbollah operates from civilian areas.
Reflecting squeezed finances, Hezbollah said in May it has had to cut back on cash payments. Earlier this month, the group offered assistance of $200 to displaced families — the first cash aid it has offered during the war, recipients said.
Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center, a think-tank, said a big injection of Iranian cash would be “a game changer” for Hezbollah, allowing it to aid constituents and repair frayed political alliances in Lebanon.
He expected the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament would “take a backseat”, noting Hezbollah could cite Israeli occupation as justification for staying armed. He called Hezbollah a strategic asset for Iran that Tehran was unlikely to give up.
Iran is pressing for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon — its foreign minister said on Tuesday Israel’s continued troop presence in Lebanon would be considered a breach of the MoU.
It’s unclear whether part of the “pay for performance” approach touted by the Trump administration includes restrictions on Iran financing terrorist organizations. No doubt it is subject to interpretation by both parties, since the MOU as described is remarkably vague.
If the final version of the MOU resembles the published version, it seems plausible that there will be no limitations on what Iran can do with the money it receives.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
I would assume that “any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran” would include its foreign proxies. Whether that is consistent with the Trump administration’s interpretation is not yet clear.
BREAKING: “If I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
“If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to… pic.twitter.com/67JRcDptYS
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 17, 2026
BREAKING: “If I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
“If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” Trump said.
Trump contrasted the deal with the Obama-era JCPOA, arguing the previous administration tried to “bribe their way out of it.”
“You know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama and they said, ‘he’s a stupid son of a b****.'”
Trump insists that he will hold Iran to his interpretation of the agreement, although we really don’t know what that is right now. Does it include Iranian proxies? Does it include limitations on their missile program?
Until we see the MOU, and now Iran is saying that they don’t want it published at all, we won’t know. Iran claims the versions out there are wrong, and that the deal they got was even better. That easily could be for domestic consumption, though.
We don’t know. And the longer we don’t, the more likely domestic support for Trump will bleed away among skeptics.
