Let's Engage in Baseless Speculation for a Moment, Shall We? The Skies Over Iran Have Emptied – HotAir
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Now, I’m not saying that this is as accurate as the Pentagon Pizza Tracker…

Well, hang on a minute. Let’s check in with them…hmmmm.





Okay – that’s intriguing.

Earlier today, word came that the troops at the US base in Qatar had been advised to evacuate.

‘All routine precautions,’ said one congressman.

US Personnel Advised to Evacuate Qatar Military Base Amid Tensions With Iran

U.S. personnel at a military base in Qatar have been advised to evacuate the facility amid escalating tensions with nearby Iran.

…On Wednesday, personnel at the Qatar base were advised to evacuate. That same base, as noted in a report from The Associated Press, was the target of an Iranian strike in July. The report continued:

The official, who spoke to The Associated Press on Wednesday on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive plans, described the move at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a precautionary measure. The official wouldn’t go into any further details about the move, including whether the evacuation was optional or mandatory, if it affected troops or civilian personnel, or the number of those advised to leave, citing the need for operational security.

In response, Qatar said Wednesday that such measures were being “undertaken in response to the current regional tensions.”

On CNN, Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-CA) explained how the move was merely a precaution as opposed to confirmation of an imminent attack.

I can see it. I can also see it being a headfake, although they do have tankers leaving the base per the program’s monitors.





There is also word that the USS Abraham Lincoln has been told to head in the other direction. Now this sort of transit does not happen overnight.

Depending on exactly where they were when they started steaming, it could take up to a week for them to reach their station in the Indian Ocean off the Saudi Peninsula or in that general area.

I can’t believe no one’s leaked the plans to me, right?

Now for the sky above Iran.

What I’m talking about in the headline are aviation tracking programs that monitor planes and aviation traffic worldwide. The first clue that something might be a little out of the ordinary came when the German government issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) to stay out of Iranian airspace. Lufthansa had been scheduled to resume flights to Tehran on Friday after suspending them last June.





…A) EDGG EDWW EDMM B) 2601141705 C) 2602102359 E) SECURITY – HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN IRAN CIVIL GERMAN AIR OPERATORS ARE RECOMMENDED NOT TO ENTER FIR TEHRAN (OIIX). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION FROM ESCALATING CONFLICT AND ANTI-AVIATION WEAPONRY. THIS NOTAM OVERRULES THE RECOMMENDATION PROVIDED IN THE CURRENTLY APPLICABLE AIC.

Then folks who keep an eye on these things noticed something kind of wild happening. At four this afternoon, there seemed to be a general exodus out of Iranian airspace happening.

Within an hour or so later, the airspace above Iran was basically a ghost town.

Someone watching individual flights picked up on a couple of them hustling to get on the deck in a hurry.

One of the funniest Xweets I’ve ever read captured the mood of everyone watching the waiters clear the bar, tables, candles, plates, and silverware out of the room in real time in anticipation of a throwdown messing up the draperies.





… wants their jet accidentally wandering into a geopolitical food fight, airspace going quiet is one of the loudest silent signals you’ll ever see, it means intelligence chatter is spicy, threat assessments just went from yellow to oh hell no, and the grown-ups are quietly moving chess pieces while Twitter prophets are still arguing vibes, this lines up perfectly with embassies pulling staff, ships anchoring offshore, tankers repositioning, and markets twitching like a caffeine addict, the world doesn’t wait for press conferences when danger smells real, it just reroutes, hedges, and tightens the belt, anyone pretending this is “nothing” is either asleep, coping, or lying for clicks, because when commercial aviation starts ghosting an entire airspace, history usually isn’t far behind warming up its entrance music. 

It makes you put your ‘Hmmm‘ cap on, joining in the tactical speculation from the safety of your couch and in your home with the doors locked.

Ed’s post this afternoon, and his addendum at the end about a Trump headfake, for which he is well known, could very well be coming together.





 It may be exactly this kind of offer that the mullahs can’t refuse, in Godfather-speak. In the novel, Mario Puzo called that phrase the final rattle before Vito Corleone would strike. I’d bet that’s what Trump has in mind, too. “Either make this true, or else…”

There is a lot of consensus that that is exactly what we’re seeing playing out.

…Trump looking to create complete confusion everywhere, he don’t like somebody predict his moves

The thing is with Trump, you don’t know, and the Iranians may have jumped the gun with what could turn out to be a very premature ‘everything is under control here, now’ statement.

And I guess we’re not the only ones scratching our chins.

Maybe it’s not so baseless after all.

Should something go down in the very near future, may the good Lord protect our magnificent troops in whatever capacity they play, and bring relief from tyranny at last to the valiant and long-suffering people of Iran.

And JUST BEFORE THIS POSTS:  Look what has been rumored to go down.





BUT WAIT! THERE’S MORE!

Holy schamoly moly if this is true. The NOTAMs over Iran have been lifted and the only aircraft entering the airspace are Chinese?

And what have we here?

…This would explain why President Trump has stated that ‘The killing has stopped,” and why he is holding off on the attack for now. The skies could not be reopened above Iran without total certainty that there would be no attack. 

The pause would of course allow Khamanei to seek safe passage to Moscow. 

To be clear, this is a total speculation. 

I welcome the experts weighing in.

If Trump managed to get the tyrant ayatollah out…oh, my God.





HOLY SCHAMOLY MOLY, THIS IS CRAZY

And I am so glad to be here for it.

Now we still need to find out what was on the Bella 1… 

…since half of Europe is taking credit for helping the US catch her.

Hmmmm.


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