Taylor Swift only needed one weekend to take the box office by storm, taking in a strong $34 million domestic and $50 million worldwide, outgrossing 12 major releases in just one weekend. The watch party for her new album The Life Of a Showgirl was only in theaters for one weekend, ceding the box office back to traditional studio fare.
This weekend will most certainly be owned by Disney’s Tron: Ares, starring Jared Leto, with Channing Tatum’s indie Roofman expected to make a minimal splash. Also expanding into wide release this weekend is Anemone, the film that lured three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis out of retirement, with Jennifer Lopez and Diego Luna’s musical Kiss of the Spider-Woman arriving as well.
Box office analysts have been tracking Tron: Ares for a debut between $45 million and $50 million, though with lackluster reviews pouring in ahead of Friday’s release, it should come in well under projections. Taylor Swift couldn’t out-perform projections in the $35 million to $40 million range, and if Taylor can’t do it, then I doubt Jared Leto can either.
Tron: Ares Will Come In Just Under Its Predecessor Tron: Legacy
The Tron franchise has spanned more than four decades, though only three movies have been released – 1982’s TRON, 2010’s Tron: Legacy and now Tron: Ares. The first TRON was ahead of its time, a pioneer of computer-generated imagery (CGI) that would pave the way for decades of blockbusters to come.
While it wasn’t a huge box office hit ($33 million from a $17 million budget), it became a cult classic with legions of fans. 28 years later it spawned Tron: Legacy in 2010, which debuted with $44 million en route to $172 million domestic and $400 million worldwide from a $170 million budget.
The Tron: Ares budget has been rumored to be between $150 million and $180 million, and if it is on the higher side, it would likely need to open on the higher side of the projections, though that probably won’t happen. We’re predicting the three-quel will open at $41.3 million, which, paired with middling reviews could provide an uphill climb to profitability.
Roofman Finds a Low Ceiling For Its Box Office Debut
Image via Paramount Pictures
Channing Tatum returns in Roofman, bringing the bizarre true story of criminal Jeffrey Machester to life on the big screen. Manchester was a former U.S. Army Reserve soldier who took to a life of crime, with the film following his escape from prison and the months he spent hiding out in a Toys ‘R Us.
Tatum stars alongside Kirsten Dunst as Leigh Wainscott, a Charlotte, North Carolina woman Manchester starts dating while he’s hiding out, with Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines) directing and co-writing the script with Kirt Gunn. The film is opening in 3,340 theaters, much less than the estimated 4,000 theaters Ares will drop in.
Roofman should have no trouble debuting in second place this weekend with a predicted gross of $10.4 million, ahead of holdovers One Battle After Another and The Smashing Machine, which should fall to third and fourth places with $6.4 million and $2.6 million, respectively.
Kiss of the Spider-Woman Is Kiss Of Death At The Box Office
Jennifer Lopez returns to the big screen with the musical Kiss of the Spider-Woman, based on both the 1976 novel by Manuel Puig and the 1990s stage musical, but this isn’t expected to be a blockbuster by any means. It likely won’t have a large enough a debut to make a real dent at the box office.
While it earned rave reviews after its Sundance Film Festival debut in January (currently at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes), it is only expected to debut in 1,300 theaters, a far cry from Tron: Ares’ 4,000 theaters and even Roofman‘s 3,340 theaters. It should debut with $2.3 million in fifth place, just below The Smashing Machine.
Puig’s novel was previously adapted with the 1985 film starring William Hurt, Raul Julia and Sonia Braga, which earned $17 million worldwide from a $1.5 million budget. Amazingly, JLo’s new version may not even pass the original adaptation, even without adjusting for inflation.
Potential Minor Hits In Limited Release
Two films debut this weekend in limited release, which could very well show up on the bottom half of the top 10. After The Hunt, director Luca Guadgnino’s new thriller starring Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield and Eyo Adibiri, arrives along with Rose Byrne and Conan O’Brien’s If I Had Legs I Would Kick You.
If I Had Legs I Would Kick You is currently at a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which could very well bode well for its box office results. However, the reviews are much more mixed for After The Hunt, which is currently at 51%.
The star-power for both could very well draw fans to theaters even in limited release, though no full theater counts have not been released yet. Still, they aren’t expected to crack the top 10, but they could still put up some strong numbers just outside the top 10 this weekend. Take a look at our predicted top 10 below.
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Box Office Predictions – October 10-12 |
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Film Title |
Predicted Opening Weekend Gross |
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1) Tron: Ares |
$41.3 million |
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2) Roofman |
$10.4 million |
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3) One Battle After Another |
$6.4 million |
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4) The Smashing Machine |
$2.6 million |
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5) Kiss of the Spider-Woman |
$2.3 million |
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6) Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
$2.1 million |
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7) Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie – Infinity Castle |
$1.8 million |
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8) Avatar: The Way of Water (Re-release) |
$1.4 million |
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9) The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
$1.2 million |
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10) Good Boy |
$1 million |
