Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner

As the awards season ramps up, Best Actress looks like one of the most stacked categories at the Oscars 2026, making it even trickier to predict. But after Mikey Madison’s win last year, I’m happy to once again track this race and see how it unfolds, giving you ScreenRant‘s predictions for the category.

A year after the back-and-forth battle between Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance), figuring out who the frontrunner is for Best Actress in 2026 may vary on the week. There’s a great wealth of extraordinary performances for the Academy to reward, including former winners, nominees, and those hoping for their first nomination.

Some of the best movies of 2025 have contributed to the Best Actress Oscar 2026 race. The likes of Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and Emma Stone’s performance in Bugonia, have had continued support, as have others.

With nominations set to be announced on Thursday, January 22, it’s time for a final check-in on how the race is shaping up and predict the nominees.

Commentary and predictions updated January 19

The Best Actress Nomination Frontrunners

Rose Byrne's Linda laying down and looking tiredly at her daughter in If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You — Rose Byrne’s Linda laying down and looking tiredly at her daughter in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

With the benefit of some precursors already being handed out, here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actress nominations prediction:

Rank	Actress	Movie
1)	Jessie Buckley	Hamnet
2)	Rose Byrne	If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
3)	Renate Reinsve	Sentimental Value
4)	Emma Stone	Bugonia
5)	Kate Hudson	Song Sung Blue

This is a very fluid category in my mind, one that’s ripe for some surprises. But Jessie Buckley’s nomination will not be one. She’s in pole position for the victory in this category, so a nomination is assured.

Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve have both been strong contenders all season long, with Byrne solidifying her standing with a win at the Golden Globes and plenty of praise from critics groups.

Emam Stone has maintained a favorable position thanks to Bugonia gaining more appreciation, while Kate Hudson has come on strong to end the year. Helping all of their cases (except for Reinsve) is that they all received nominations at the Actor Awards.

I expect the Oscars and Actor Awards to match on four of five nominees, which is fairly common (they haven’t gone 5-5 on nominees since 2009), leaving one tough cut to make room for Reinsve.

Actresses Still In The Mix

Willa driving a car in One Battle After Another — Willa (Chase Infiniti) driving a car in One Battle After Another

To make room for the Sentimental Value star, that knocks Chase Infiniti out. Despite the acclaim the One Battle After Another star has received, the Oscars aren’t always that friendly to younger performers. Perhaps Inifniti defies that trend and gets in for her breakthrough performance. It wouldn’t be a total shock if she edges out Hudson.

Actress	Movie
Amanda Seyfried	The Testament of Ann Lee
Chase Infiniti	One Battle After Another
Cynthia Erivo	Wicked: For Good
Jennifer Lawrence	Die, My Love
Julia Roberts	After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson	Hedda

If a nominee comes from this grouping that isn’t Infiniti, Amanda Seyfried could do it. There’s a good amount of passion behind her performance and The Testament of Ann Lee overall. Jennifer Lawrence, Julia Roberts, and Tessa Thompson are other options to hear their names called on Thursday.

The same could still be true for Cynthia Erivo, even if she’s missed out on some key precursor nominations. Should Wicked: For Good have more support than expected, her return as Elphaba could benefit.

Predicted Best Actress Winner

It’s still too early to declare any race at the Oscars over, but it does feel like Best Actress already has a clear frontrunner in Jessie Buckley. Hamnet might be a movie with William Shakespeare, but it’s more focused on Agnes’ perspective. Buckley’s emotional performance has resonated with just about everyone who has seen it.

That type of response is powerful when it comes to the Oscars. Connecting with voters’ hearts on such a deep level can make her performance unforgettable. That’s why she’s already seen as such a definitive choice to be nominated. And while the other contenders have room to overtake her, this feels like Buckley’s award to lose.

The actress has been on the ascent since her breakout role in 2018’s Wild Rose and has played central roles in a few movies the Oscars recognized since then: The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. As she prepares to take a big swing in 2026 with The Bride!, becoming an Academy Award winner for Hamnet could make next year an unforgettable one for her.

She’s got an Actor Awards nomination and won at Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes. For those reasons, Buckley is my pick for the Oscars 2026 Best Actress winner. Maybe that will change, but maybe it won’t, and she’ll steamroll her way towards the Academy Award.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions: