Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Best Director at the Oscars 2026 will pit some of the biggest creatives in Hollywood against each other, and there’s no shortage of contenders a year removed from Sean Baker’s win for Anora. It’s again my pleasure to bring you ScreenRant‘s view of the race and analysis of where things stand.

The best movies of 2025 have helped shape the Oscars race thanks to all the talented directors who made them possible. And with nominations set to be announced on Thursday, January 22, it’s time to take one final look at which filmmakers will be among the Best Director nominees this year.

Commentary and predictions updated on January 19

The Best Director Nomination Frontrunners

Courtesy: Everett Collection

The Best Director race has a few names who appear firmly etched into contention. Factoring in how films have fared in theaters or at festivals, an individual’s Oscar history, and more, here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Director nominations prediction:

The Best Director race has three locks at the top, with Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, and Chloé Zhao. They will all certainly be nominated, leaving two spots left that I believe will go to Josh Safdie and Guillermo del Toro.

Safdie and del Toro’s movies are expected Best Picture nominees, which helps their cases. They were also both DGA nominees, along with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao. Either of them could still miss as some other names are still in the running and may benefit from the increasingly international voting body the Academy boasts.

Directors Still In The Mix

If Safdie or del Toro (or both) do miss out on a Best Director nomination, it will likely be as a result of one of the following names getting in.

I’d consider Joachim Trier and Jafar Panahi as the most likely people to secure nominations from this group, followed by Yorgos Lanthimos and Kleber Mendonça Filho. This is partially tied to each of their films being in my predicted group of Best Picture nominees, but their individual recognition throughout awards season also helps.

Other avenues for surprises exist with Clint Bentley due to Train Dreams‘ Best Picture hopes and Park Chan-wook thanks to the Oscars having more favor toward international filmmakers. Mary Bronstein and Mona Fastvold could also get in should their leading performances get Best Actress nominations, and if voters want greater representation from women directors.

Predicted Best Director Winner

Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection

Choosing the winner of Best Director is not a prediction that should be made on its own. Oscar history tells us that there is a strong correlation with Best Picture. The winner of Best Director has been responsible for the Best Picture winning film 72% of the time — or 70 of 97 times. This includes the last three Director winners.

The Oscars have split Best Picture and Best Director nine times since 2000. To put that into some historical perspective, there have been more splits between these categories in the last 25 years than there were in the previous 50 years. But, Paul Thomas Anderson is destined to win for One Battle After Another and follow the larger trend.

He’s made movies that have contended for Best Picture and won other Oscars, but he is personally 0 for 11. There’s no sign that he’s slowing down or losing his fastball, so there should still be plenty of opportunities to recognize him in the future. Yet, it’s unbelievable that the guy behind Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread can’t say he’s an Academy Award winner.

PTA has dominated awards season with wins for his directing, including at Critics’ Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. The strength of his work, plus the strong narrative, makes him my pick to win Best Director at the Oscars 2026. Only time will tell if he’s able to maintain this spot.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

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