Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Screen Rant‘s Oscars 2026 coverage continues with a look at Best Supporting Actor, which might just be one of the more competitive categories at the 98th Academy Awards. After Kieran Culkin won for A Real Pain last year, it’s my honor once again to provide insight to this race throughout the remainder of award season.

It’s worth noting that the Best Supporting Actor category has seen a notable trend recently, with the last six winners being first-time winners. Mahershala Ali’s win for Green Book prevents the streak from going back even further. That’s an intriguing tidbit to keep in mind as we navigate the 2026 season.

There are a number of potential first-time Oscar winners contending in this category. Hollywood veterans like Adam Sandler, Delroy Lindo, Stellan Skarsgård, and William H. Macy are looking for a long-awaited victory. But some established Academy Award-winning actors are also in the mix.

Voters will ultimately have to decide whether to award people who already have received some recognition or to shine the spotlight on rising stars and those whose wins are overdue. This is how I see Best Supporting Actor right now, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Best Supporting Actor Nomination Frontrunners

There’s a lot of time left in award season, but a few names have already become firmly entrenched in this race. Festival premieres, praise from critics, and more all help shape my current predictions for the Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor nominees.

Stellan Skarsgård has been a fixture of this category’s discussion ever since Sentimental Value debuted at Cannes. His performance has been widely celebrated, with ScreenRant‘s Graeme Guttman praising his “brilliant work” in his 10/10 Sentimental Value review.

Notably, Skarsgård has never been nominated for an Oscar in any category, making his contention this year a breakthrough for him. With the possibility that the film racks up multiple nominations and contends for Best Picture, there’s a chance for this performance to be one of the movie’s signature aspects.

All the recent buzz for Best Supporting Actor, though, has concentrated on Sean Penn as Lockjaw. One Battle After Another‘s theatrical release opened the floodgates to more prognosticating about its Oscar chances, and Penn has emerged as one of the movie’s most likely nominees.

His performance as a racist colonel seeking power, acceptance, and love in his own twisted way is incredibly layered. It certainly helps Penn’s chances that he has a history with the Academy — five nominations and two wins for Best Actor — and a strong comeback narrative as he delivers his best performance in years.

Paul Mescal is a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination for his performance in Hamnet based on the early reactions to Chloé Zhao’s movie. Focus Features hasn’t confirmed whether the film’s FYC campaign will push him in Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor, but the current belief is the latter — even if he might have an easier time winning as a lead.

Mescal is already an Oscar nominee for Aftersun​​​​​​, which came as a bit of a surprise. After not getting into awards conversations for Gladiator II, it seems like the actor is in a good spot to earn another nomination. Until Focus confirms otherwise, I’m going to expect him to contend in Best Supporting Actor.

Meanwhile, will this be the year the Academy finally recognizes Adam Sandler? After a mostly shocking snub for Uncut Gems​​​​​​, he remains without an Oscar nomination. His reunion with Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly looks to change that at long last.

Even though the film is built around George Clooney’s character, Sandler appears to be in the best position among the cast to earn award recognition. The Oscars have had plenty of opportunities to acknowledge his dramatic work before — Punch-Drunk Love, The Meyerowitz Stories, Uncut Gems, and Hustle — but have refused to do so.

The last spot, currently, is more up in the air to me. Several performances could rise to get a nomination, but, for now, I’m giving the edge to Delroy Lindo. Sinners should be one of the year’s biggest Oscar contenders, and his work is some of the best in the film.

Lindo has never been nominated for an Oscar, as he was considered a snub in 2021 after his powerful performance in Da 5 Bloods. The career aspect of his campaign could help tip the season in his favor and put him ahead of others who remain in the hunt.

Actors Still In The Mix

There is a strong group of other actors hoping to break into the Best Supporting Actor race as the season unfolds. Many of them will have a better idea of their chances as their movies officially come out and precursors start to pick up.

While Lindo is in my predicted group of nominees right now, there’s always a chance that his Sinner co-stars, Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell, sneak in ahead of him. The Academy could also look at another horror film, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, and give Jacob Elordi the nod.

The actors who seem to be in the best position to move up and earn nominations is loaded with former nominees. William H. Macy (Train Dreams), Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), and Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) could emerge.

Yet, it’s former Best Supporting Actor winner Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) who may just earn his third nomination in the category. This would really test just how much voters plan to honor Paul Thomas Anderson’s movie. All six main performances could be nominated, even if that’s not what I’m currently predicting.

If voters are willing to put two nominees from the same movie in this category, del Toro has competition. Billy Crudup (Jay Kelly) and Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet) could benefit from their films contending across the board.

Several actors are looking for their first nominations, such as Andrew Scott (Blue Moon), Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite), Diego Luna (Kiss of the Spider Woman), and James Belushi (Song Sung Blue).

There are also long shots from high-profile films. Wicked: For Good could deliver nominations for Jonathan Bailey or Ethan Slater. Josh O’Connor could get in for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. Same for Andrew Garfield in After the Hunt or Mark Hamill in The Life of Chuck.

Predicted Best Supporting Actor Winner

Looking at where things stand now, I’m left with the impression that Skarsgård is in the lead position for the win. He’s got what sounds like the showiest role among the Sentimental Value cast, as he plays an estranged father who has lost the recognition of his filmmaking career, drinks frequently, and is dealing with heartbreak.

The career narrative of Skarsgård’s candidacy should also help. He’s a widely respected and celebrated actor with decades of experience. Many may know him from his franchise roles in the MCU, Dune, and Star Wars with Andor. He’s showcased his abilities throughout the years, but has few awards to show for it.

Sentimental Value is a chance to change that. His performance alone sounds like it is worthy of winning an Oscar, and early signs suggest he has the support to do so. But, the angle of finally honoring a reliably terrific performer like him could boost him to first place, as could the film’s overall standing.

Sentimental Value will be a major contender across the board. But its path to winning is a bit murkier. This could make Skarsgård even more pivotal. Voters may have to determine if he is the element of the film most deserving to win. For now, it seems that they will and make him the Best Supporting Actor winner at the Oscars 2026.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

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