The Star Wars franchise has created its own sarlacc, in a way, by setting the bar for success so high that even an otherwise excellent box-office performance is viewed as disappointing. In its opening weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu delivered a haul in the same range as those of Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Two, and Avatar: Fire and Ash. Considered in isolation, this is an encouraging result for the first Star Wars movie in seven years. However, when you add context, the picture changes. The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s opening weekend haul was also in the same range as Solo: A Star Wars Story, which remains notorious for being the least-successful live-action installment of the franchise. Solo is also largely responsible for bringing about major changes in creative strategy that saw Lucasfilm pivot from a big-screen-first game plan to streaming.
In other words, the failure of Solo influenced The Mandalorian, and now, The Mandalorian and Grogu is in the same pickle as Solo. This is the Way. However, Solo cost a whopping $275 million to produce. And this was the conservative estimate. The movie was effectively shot twice after original directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were fired for going off-script and replaced by the steady studio hand Ron Howard. Solo opened to mixed-to-positive reviews, and grossed under $400 million worldwide. The Mandalorian and Grogu, on the other hand, appears to have had an uneventful production that set Disney back by a reported $165 million. This is lower than most tent poles these days, which tend to cost more than $200 million. Project Hail Mary, for instance, had a reported price tag of $250 million. Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens, on the other hand, remains the most expensive movie ever made with a reported budget of more than $600 million.
‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Doesn’t Need to Gross a Fortune to Break Even
What this also means is that the bar for success is lower for The Mandalorian and Grogu than it was for Solo, which ultimately resulted in more than $100 million in losses for Disney. According to a recent report, the first Star Wars movie in seven years needs to gross between $500 million and $600 million worldwide to break even. This estimate takes into account the film’s combined production and marketing budgets of under $300 million, and the typical 50-50 split that studios have with exhibitors. Movies of this size generally need to gross twice their combined budgets to break even, and The Mandalorian and Grogu has crucial factors going for it. For instance, the movie holds an 89% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and an A- CinemaScore grade, which counters its lukewarm critical response. It’s also generating interest among the children drawn to Grogu, and the older males who enjoy Western-style action. More importantly, it’s the cheapest Disney-era Star Wars movie. Stay tuned to Collider for more updates.
- Release Date
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May 22, 2026
- Runtime
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132 Minutes
