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The Denver Broncos’ 2nd-ranked defense is “overrated” and the New England Patriots must use one formation to beat in in the AFC Championship Game.
Facing Jarrett Stidham won’t be the biggest problem for the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, but finding ways to score on a Denver Broncos defense that led the NFL with 68 sacks doesn’t need to be difficult, at least according to a former pro quarterback who’s given the Pats a tip on how to dissect a unit one observer is convinced is “overrated.”
The tip comes from ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. A QB for the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Orlovsky identified a key weakness of the Broncos’ defense.
Specifically, Orlovksy stated the Broncos will “blow coverages. I’ve seen it throughout the course of the season. I think number one, if you use motion in your run game, just because of their eyes and their man coverage, you can get gashes, but more if you get in those bunches in the pass game, they will drop people.”
The Patriots have to “motion to bunch” at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, January 25, according to Orlovsky, but is it really that simple to beat a defense ranked third in points and second in yards, per Pro Football Reference?
It might be if those numbers have been inflated by a weak schedule that’s masked the true talent level of Denver’s defense.
Patriots Have Unexpected Edge vs. Broncos Defense
On paper, this matchup should favor the Broncos, but not everybody is sold on their defense. Among the doubters, Boston Sports Journal founder Greg A. Bedard put it bluntly when he said, “I don’t really care if it’s the Broncos … 28th schedule + slow LBs & safeties + 8 games of 23+ points allowed = Overrated Broncos defense.”
Bedard identified “the No. 2 corner” Riley Moss as somebody McDaniels and the Patriots “are gonna go after.” Another weakness the Pats can exploit involves what Bedard called “slow” linebackers who “can be taken advantage of, especially over the middle of the field with the tight ends, with the running backs.”
That use of personnel, allied with Orlovsky’s prompting about bunch formations, can be the perfect blueprint for helping Patriots QB1 Drake Maye play a more efficient game. He’s due one after suffering multiple turnovers and near misses through two playoff contests.
Josh McDaniels Must Protect Drake Maye
Maye is still playing well enough to give the Patriots a decided advantage at quarterback, particularly when the Broncos are forced to rely on backup Stidham. Yet, Maye took more than his share of punishment from the rampaging pass-rushing fronts of the Texans and Los Angeles Chargers, who combined to sack him 10 times, force six fumbles and snatch a pair of interceptions.
McDaniels needs something more subtle to help the protection in front of Maye. He can start by bunching capable pass-catching backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson with tight ends Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry, as well as wide receivers Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas.
Running crossing patterns from these formations will draw slower Broncos defenders into coverage mismatches. The same concepts can also deter Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph from pushing the blitz button too often.
Joseph is from the coaching tree of longtime former NFL defensive guru Wade Phillips, who called schemes based on heavy pressure in front of man coverage. This formula is serving Joseph well, with Denver’s defense blitzing 199 times during the regular season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Continuing to send pressure at this rate is how Joseph can unsettle Maye. Forcing the latter into errant throws against last season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year, cornerback Patrick Surtain II, is a recipe for disaster for the Patriots.
So is the Broncos directing their pass rush toward Will Campbell, the rookie left tackle who remains defiant despite struggling mightily this postseason. McDaniels is saying the right things about Campbell, but the Patriots know the Broncos and 14-sack edge-rusher Nik Bonitto will give the fourth-overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft plenty to think about.
That problem is spelled out by Doug Clawson of CBS Sports. He detailed how “Campbell has allowed 8 pressures and 3 sacks this postseason (both most in the NFL) Enter … Nik Bonitto: 3rd-highest pressure rate this year (19.1%) Zach Allen: 50 QB hits this season (2 shy of breaking JJ Watt’s NFL record).”
Obstructing the paths of marquee pass-rushers and blitzing defenders with bunch looks in the slot is another reason for the Patriots to follow Orlovsky’s advice.
James Dudko covers the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens for Heavy.com. He has covered the NFL and world soccer since 2011, with bylines at FanSided, Prime Time Sports Talk and Bleacher Report before joining Heavy in 2021. More about James Dudko
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