Thursday's Final Word – HotAir
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Ali don’t like it – rock the tabs-ah, rock the tabs-ah …





Ed: Probably true, but the problem is that the mullahs of Iran took over an actual nation-state member of the UN in a popular uprising. ISIS is a stateless terror network that has held varying amounts of turf in Syria and western Iraq. We treat that differently for good reasons. We can address ISIS militarily without committing acts of war against an actual member-state. However, Alinejad is correct to argue that the UN should be treating the mullah regime as a pariah state. 

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Times of Israel: US President Donald Trump reportedly informed Iran that he won’t be ordering a strike on the country over its deadly crackdown on protesters after the leaders of four Arab countries convinced him to hold off.

Trump had threatened to hit Iran in recent days if the regime killed protesters who have been pouring into the streets across the country in demonstrations against the Islamic Republic. Several thousand are reportedly dead as part of the crackdown, but Trump declared Wednesday that he had been told, apparently by Tehran, that the killing in Iran had stopped and that the regime would not be executing any protesters.

Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam said in remarks during a Thursday visit to a Pakistani ministry that Trump had informed Tehran that he does not want a war and urged the regime to exercise restraint and not target US assets in the region.

Ed: Reportedly, the Israelis also opposed a military strike. The concern seems to be that a strike would further empower or entrench the parts of the regime that might fall more easily without American intervention, or just create a failed-state collapse that no one in the region wants. That may be why we’re hearing of alternatives to military strikes that focus consequences on elements in a way that more effectively weakens them. This is, however, also why presidents shouldn’t announce red lines in public. 





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However, I’m not pretending to know the intelligence situation, the assets available, or the potential target package. Maybe it’s a bad idea now. I don’t know. I do know that JD Vance distinguishes between endless forever wars without any strategic objective and discrete strikes designed for immediate effect without a perpetual commitment.

I think I’ve seen enough from this administration to trust their judgment, especially in light of the fact that neither you nor I know all the facts they know.

Ed: This is a fair point. However, again, these considerations should have been taken into account before declaring that “help is on the way” if the intel doesn’t support an intervention. I also think that we should be a bit more patient before concluding that Trump won’t do anything in this moment. 

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Time Magazine: A sudden collapse of central authority could unleash not only sectarian and ethnic violence but also a scramble for nuclear material among rival factions, including  competing elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. 

External intervention designed to weaken the regime’s repressive machinery might simply prompt a scorched-earth backlash against the Iranian people, while neighboring states, anxious about instability, radicalization, and an influx of refugees, look on with mounting alarm. These concerns, compounded by anxieties over an increasingly ascendant Israel, have prompted countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman to actively discourage the Trump Administration from resorting to military force.





Although U.S. military intervention in Iran might appear reckless, doing nothing is equally untenable. The status quo—an ossified theocracy presiding over a bankrupt economy and an aggrieved populace—has already proven unsustainable. The challenge for Washington lies in avoiding the false choice between regime change by force, with unforeseen consequences, and spectacular but cynically symbolic action.

A more promising course, if still fraught, involves deploying Washington’s available incentives to encourage political renewal. The substance of such metamorphosis must be defined by Iranians themselves, not dictated by Americans.

Ed: It’s worth noting that major factions of the Iranian opposition have been making that same point all along. And it might be still worthwhile to make it look like these Sunni states are holding Trump back, making the point to the regime that its days are numbered either way. 

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Ed: You’d better believe that the DoJ will look at every bit of video available to track down criminal agitators. 

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Racket News: The National Security Archive, a FOIA-based operation run since 1985 as a “check against government secrecy,” just a week ago released transcripts of exchanges between Putin and Bush during the post-9/11 period. This followed explosive releases by the same archive in late December. Both sets of documents showed that a U.S.-Russian relationship Bush cheerfully described as an “alliance” after 9/11 deteriorated quickly, in significant part because of NATO expansion.





“I just want to say it out loud… accession to NATO of a country like Ukraine will create for the long-term a field of conflict for you and us. Long-term confrontation,” Putin told Bush on April 6, 2008. Bush in reply flattered Putin, saying, “One of the things I admire about you is you weren’t afraid to say it to NATO. That’s very admirable.” But his position didn’t budge. This was shortly after relations between the two countries deteriorated over a summit in Bucharest in which NATO announced that it “welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership.”

In yesterday’s Racket piece it was mentioned that the United States under Bill Clinton chose to push NATO expansion at the expense of START II disarmament talks, a move that led to a 1997 group letter from 50 senior American policymakers that ended up being ignored. By the mid-2000s the U.S. and NATO were pursuing advanced new offensive and defensive systems that Putin reportedly told Bush were forcing Russia to keep pace with a “barbaric” new arms race, one that “horrified” even Putin himself.

Ed: Well worth the read. It certainly provides some context for the current conflict, as well as the confict with Georgia in 2008. It might explain why Trump is skeptical about NATO and wants to find a way out of the Ukraine war, but honestly, those have been obvious since before Trump’s first term, too. 

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… the additional federal officers are necessary to provide the kind of protective force the ICE Officers would otherwise lack.

So Minnesotans can blame this on their state government.

Ed: This also shows that Trump still really would prefer not to invoke the Insurrection Act. Ship’s right about this, too; the situation would be entirely unnecessary if the state and cities cooperated with ICE on immigration detainers. Instead, ICE is forced to go find criminal illegal aliens in the community rather than just having them transferred from the jails. 

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Associated Press: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said she presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump during a meeting with him at the White House on Thursday, “as a recognition for his unique commitment with our freedom.” …

The Nobel Institute, which awarded the prize, had said Machado couldn’t give it to Trump. The White House said before the meeting that, if she tried to do that, whether he accepted it would be entirely up to Trump.

Even if it was just symbolic, however, Machado’s gesture was extraordinary given that Trump has dismissed Machado’s credibility to take over leadership of Venezuela after an audacious U.S. military raid that captured then-President Nicolás Maduro.

Ed: Does the AP think those two things are unrelated? Machado knows who she’s dealing with. 

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Jonathan Turley: Yesterday, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, on behalf of the state and alongside the cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, filed a federal lawsuit that is most notable in the absence of any intelligible legal principle. The effort to stop the surge of federal personnel to investigate fraud and enforce immigration is breathtakingly frivolous and farcical.

Ellison has long been more advocate than attorney in his public life, even praising Antifa for instilling fear in Trump and Ellison’s political opponents.

Ed: Professor Turley broke out the Billy Madison clip to describe Ellison’s lawsuit. A judge declined to intervene today, and Turley predicted the outcome. 

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Ed: Is this for real? It’s entirely ridiculous, which leads me to believe it is. You can’t make this stuff up (unless you can). 

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Ed: Sounds more like Timecop to me.  

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WashEx: Katie Pavlich is the latest change to NewsNation’s lineup, bringing a new perspective and voice to prime-time cable news.





After 16 years at TownHall.com, Pavlich is jumping into the anchor seat at NewsNation. Starting Jan. 19, Pavlich will be the sole conservative woman to anchor during the weekdays’ prime-time airwaves. 

Ed: Congrats to our friend Katie! Be sure to tune in!


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