'Too Late' to Talk Now; Most Military Sites Hit – HotAir

Too late for negotiations to end the war with Iran? Donald Trump made that clear on Truth Social today, but obstinacy may not be the reason. Trump certainly wants to complete the total defenestration of Iran’s military capabilities, especially its ballistic missile systems and support for terrorism around the world. That, in fact, may already be close to accomplishment:

Iran still has launchers and lots of ballistic missiles, however, and that’s the main concern at the moment. The US and Israel have ramped up attacks, primarily on Tehran, but have now begun targeting the launchers more vigorously than before. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu can focus more on offense now that other Western nations are belatedly entering the conflict to provide more defense. France will deploy a frigate to the eastern Mediterranean after attacks on Cyprus, with the intent to target Iranian drones:

France plans to send anti-missile and anti-drone systems to Cyprus after a British air base on the island was attacked by drones, the semi-official Cyprus News Agency (CNA) said on Tuesday.

France would send anti-missile and anti-drone systems, as well as a frigate, CNA reported. It said French President Emmanuel Macron communicated the intention to Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides early on Tuesday.

A Cypriot government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the report. The French defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The reported French aid to the island follows Greece’s offer of assistance hours after RAF Akrotiri, a British sovereign base, was targeted in two separate drone incidents on Monday.

Earlier in the morning, Trump insisted that the time for negotiations is over. Iran denied even asking for talks:

Israel announced a “large-scale wave” of strikes targeting Iran’s capital Tuesday, with local media showing columns of smoke rising over the centre of town — home to many government buildings — and reporting an attack on one of the city’s two airports.

“Their air defence, air force, navy, and leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said: ‘Too late!’,” Trump posted on social media, two days after he said he was open to talks and four days after US and Israeli strikes killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva denied that his country had approached the US for talks.

The main obstacle for negotiations at this point is whether anyone’s really in charge in Iran. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains in Geneva and is at least nominally available for discussions. However, Oman has withdrawn as mediator after Iran targeted Oman with missiles and/or drones. Iran has targeted practically every country in the region except Turkey to replace Oman as mediator to any talks, and Trump probably has no interest in putting Turkey in a position to dictate outcomes at the moment. 

The question of mediators is, moreover, subordinate to the question of current leadership. Ali Khamenei is dead, his son is dead, and more than 40 others in senior IRGC and political leadership have been killed along with Khamenei. Ali Larijani and Masoud Pezeshkian are reportedly alive and holed up in a hospital around Tehran, but they may not have much contact with military/terror forces in command of a rapidly decreasing inventory of launchers. The US and Israel have at least severely degraded central command and control functions, which means that even if these two co-consuls are still breathing, they probably can’t do much to deliver on any promises now. 

In the normal structure of the Islamic Republic, neither Larijani nor Pezeshkian could negotiate terms on their own anyway. Only the “supreme leader” – the top religious authority – would have the power to approve terms. Thus far, 88 mullahs who make up the Iranian Assembly of Experts have not elected a new supreme leader, and if earlier reports are accurate, they may not be around any longer to elect Khamenei’s successor. No updates have been forthcoming yet on the status of the assembly, but no news is probably good news, especially the longer the no-news period goes on:

The strike came just as the mullahs were counting the votes to appoint the next supreme leader, according to Fox News. 

Following the attack, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency claimed that the building was an old structure that was no longer used by the assembly for its meetings. 

It remains unclear how many members of the assembly, if any, were inside the building and casting a ballot when the building was hit. 

Regardless of whether Iran wants to talk, the regime needs a new religious leader ASAP. It also needs the assembly to make itself at least somewhat publicly seen to keep key regime elements from falling apart. Larijani and Pezeshkian can maybe keep appearances up for a few days, but if the mullahs go silent, so does the divine-authority claim on which the entire regime rests. 

And other leaders that might have been able to deliver on terms are still disappearing:

Trump also addressed the excruciatingly stupid “Israel made us do it” narrative that conspiracy theorists have embraced for the last 20 hours or so. Au contraire, Trump said during a press avail at the White House with Germany’s chancellor:

Trump sees Operation Epic Fury as a success. He wants full credit for it, and in this case, all of the evidence points in that direction anyway. 

Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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