The Failure of Lightyear: Does Disney Have a Streaming Problem?

There are various factors to consider when studying Lightyear’s box office troubles. A loud and toxic wing of social media users will insist it has something to do with the film including (in brief montage) a happy lesbian couple, as well as the faux-controversy about Tim Allen’s voice being rather inexplicably replaced by Chris Evans. However, beyond handicapping Lightyear from the rich box office shores of countries with appalling records on LGBTQ+ rights, such as China where Lightyear is expected to be banned, it is unlikely that the bare minimum of inclusivity will affect the franchise movie’s box office—at least in the U.S. After all, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker also included a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it kiss between women and earned $515.2 million stateside. If there is any financial liability for not ignoring that same sex couples exist, it is marginal.

Meanwhile some might suggest that Lightyear, as a spinoff of Toy Story, is based on an aged Disney property that debuted almost 30 years ago. Conversely, Minions is a prequel to the much more recent Despicable Me franchise that launched in 2010, and is therefore more relevant to younger audiences. However, this too would appear to be misleading since the last Toy Story picture, Toy Story 4, grossed $434 million in the U.S. only three summers ago, and crossed $1 billion globally.

Ultimately, what appears to be the bigger probable issue is that Lightyear is the first Pixar movie to get a theatrical release since Onward’s truncated theatrical run in March 2020. That original Pixar IP had the unenviable position of opening one week before the world effectively stopped in the U.S. due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The same pandemic is also why Disney prudently elected to release no theatrical films for the rest of 2020, save for a day-and-date release of Mulan where you could watch it at home for a hefty premium at the same time it was in theaters.

But even as late as this past March with Turning Red, all of Pixar’s productions, which also include Soul and last year’s Luca, were released exclusively on Disney+ for free. Meanwhile Walt Disney Animation Studios (the legendary production house responsible for everything from Snow White to Frozen II) saw one of their films get Mulan’s premium day-and-date release strategy with Raya and the Last Dragon. Their other 2021 release, Encanto, was only exclusively in theaters for a scant 30 days. For most families, it didn’t even register as a pop culture phenomenon until their kids could sing “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” at home via the film’s Disney+ release over the Christmas holiday.

All of this of course originates from the need to release content during the pandemic. However, it also speaks to Disney’s greater recent strategy to pivot from dominating the theatrical market to funneling their audiences to Disney+. It’s the same logic that has caused Disney to demand an armada of Marvel and Star Wars streaming series from Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm, as well as part of the reason the latter has transitioned exclusively to television for the last several (and next several) years.

Disney even visibly tinkered with whether they could earn more money off a Marvel movie from a smaller audience of subscribers willing to pay a premium than they could by just releasing said movie exclusively in theaters. Hence Black Widow debuting on Disney+ (with a $30 surcharge) the same day it opened in theaters. The film subsequently sank like a stone at the box office, causing Scarlett Johansson to sue Disney. One of the company’s spokespeople then accused Johansson of having a “callous disregard” for public health. The rather disingenuous attack on Johansson, who was seeking compensation for Disney’s streaming strategy undermining her backend theatrical deal, had a chilling effect in the industry. Even frequent Marvel director Joe Russo told Den of Geek, “That was really not an appropriate way for them to handle that situation. It was disturbing to us as artists.”

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