There are three prominent elections that political observers are focusing on this year – New Jersey Governor, New York Mayor, and Virginia Governor.
Here is my latest update for each of these races:
New Jersey Governor: Tilt D (But an Upset is Very Possible)
The biggest change has occurred in New Jersey, where the Democratic nominee for governor is Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, and the Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli. Although the RCP average still shows a 6.5-point gap in her favor, several new polls have come out to encourage Republicans. Emerson has shown a tie at 43%, while a Republican internal has shown Ciattarelli ahead.
Now, campaign polls are good polls. The only problem is that sometimes one campaign poll will atypically show a better result than the normal daily poll results, and that is the poll that the campaign releases to get its partisans enthused. Which means that a campaign poll can be used to manipulate the race.
However, right after this internal was released, the Emerson poll came out showing a dead heat. This provides good evidence that the GOP internal was not an outlier. It is also a big positive that most polls show the GOP candidate ahead two-to-one among independents.
Further, the Democratic National Committee just doubled its spending on the campaign to $3 million, the most it’s ever shelled out in New Jersey for an off-year election. They are clearly concerned.
READ MORE: Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s Response to Military Lying Scandal Reeks of Desperation, Puts Race Up for Grabs
A surge for Ciattarelli is unsurprising, considering Sherrill’s past few weeks. She appeared on a left-wing show where she was unable to give a good explanation as to how she made millions of dollars in stocks as a sitting member of Congress. Then, it came out that she was barred from walking at her Naval Academy graduation because of a cheating scandal. She claims she was barred because she declined to rat out her classmates, which included her future husband but there may be more to it than that, because she is refusing to allow the release of her school records to provide the complete picture, and trying to confuse the situation by conflating this with the illegal release of her military records. Sherrill also released a nasty, tone deaf statement regarding her vote on the Charlie Kirk resolution. And it was discovered that Sherrill likely used her influence to get her twins appointed to the Naval Academy
Sherrill has made a number of other embarrassing flubs, which Ciattarelli has turned into effective attack ads.
The recent governor’s debate was mostly a “tame” affair, with Sherrill criticizing Ciattarelli for being a Trump supporter and he tying her to the unpopular Democrat governor. The overriding New Jersey issues are, as always, rising property taxes, rising energy prices, and crime.
Once again, in New Jersey, Sherrill is running against history, as it is very hard for one party to win three straight terms for governor. The last time this happened was in 1961, when the Republican broke his leg in the final months and was unable to campaign, allowing for a narrow Democrat win.
New York Mayor: Solid Mamdani (if There is No Consolidation)
There has been a big change in this race – Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat running as an independent, has dropped out.
However, radical Muslim socialist (if not communist) and antisemite Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democrat primary over former New York governor, Andrew Cuomo, is still the favorite in this race. He beat Cuomo because of Cuomo’s incompetence, and some shady shenanigans by local government organs, socialist and leftist non-profits, and Islamist groups. Also, one of my little birdies told me that Mamdani benefited from many moderate Democrats fleeing the city over the past twelve years of misrule, with those remaining being disproportionally wealthy leftist ‘Karens’ and South Asians.
Mamdani’s average at the RCP is 44.4%, with Cuomo consistently coming in next, as an independent, at 25.4%. Republican Curtis Sliwa is at 13.8%. Adams was at 8.4% before he left the race.
Presumably, a majority of the Adams vote will go to Cuomo and Sliwa, as those polls not including Adams show Cuomo and Sliwa benefiting.
READ MORE: Big Shake-Up in NYC Mayoral Race As Eric Adams Drops Out
If the field does not further consolidate, there is little chance of stopping Mamdani. While I would prefer Sliwa on the merits, he seems to have little chance, since, unlike in prior decades, the GOP is not a functioning party in the City, and the main donors who dislike Mamdani don’t seem to be willing to support Sliwa.
That leaves Cuomo as the only candidate who can realistically defeat Mamdani. Despite Cuomo’s own vast array of scandals.
If Sliwa drops out, Cuomo and his allies need to unleash an over-the-top negative campaign to demonize Mamdani, to both persuade already likely voters and to turn out less likely voters against him. Their campaign needs to reproduce what occurred during the Louisiana Governor’s race of 1991. In that race, a crooked former governor won a big victory over noted KKK member David Duke. The winner was incredibly unpopular, but it didn’t matter because the voters understood how dangerous a Duke victory was. This election had a famous bumper sticker – VOTE FOR THE CROOK: IT’S IMPORTANT.
Letting the City fall into the hands of Mamdani, who is likely to allow crime to run rampant and is likely to encourage, with a wink and a nod, hard-left and Islamist groups to physically attack people, is also uniquely dangerous.
Mamdani, however friendly and smiling he appears to be, is simply beyond the pale.
Virginia Governor: Lean D
In Virginia, Democrat former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger faces off against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The polling here hasn’t changed much – the RCP average has Spanberger up 49% to 41.7%.
However, the GOP has had some encouraging news. Virginia has a long early voting season, and so far, the Republican turnout has been much greater than it was before, including in 2021, when the Republican governor won. One of my little birdies in Arlington County, a Republican party official, has also said that he has seen a surge of GOP interest, with more new members coming out to meetings and events, more money raised, and more volunteers for door-to-door and other activities than ever before.
READ MORE: Early Voting Numbers in Virginia Spark Cautious Optimism for Republicans
Presumably, this is because the Spanberger campaign is underwhelming. First, a white female Democrat door knocker held up a racist sign to protest against the black Republican gubernatorial candidate. This happened when Earle-Sears made a statement about the “trans issue.” And the issue itself is harming Spanberger, as she has hewed to the left-wing position that “trans women” should be allowed into women’s bathrooms, which, even in Virginia, is not a winning issue. We know this because Spanberger has, multiple times, avoided answering questions about it.
Spanberger has also incited rage among her supporters, which is not a good look today.
We can also expect the campaign will focus on the cost of living concerns, which in this state could harm the Republicans, with a sitting Republican governor as well as President Trump. The potential for a government shutdown could also really cost the GOP.
