A recent report attempted to quantify the real costs the Biden administration’s deregulated border had on state and local governments.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the surge in illegal migration cost governments billions of dollars in 2023, which illustrates the real-world impact of the previous administration’s actions — or inactions. The report also exhorted Congress to provide adequate resources for border security, so that the chaos of the past four years can never happen again.
Quantifying Surge Populations
The CBO report looked at the impact of the Biden-era migration surge among “other foreign nationals.” This immigration category includes those who entered the United States unlawfully; so-called “overstays,” who entered the country lawfully but did not exit when their visa expired; parolees permitted entrance despite not falling into another immigration category; and those awaiting immigration proceedings in court. The budget office estimated that, by the end of 2023, the “other foreign national” population had increased by a net of 4.3 million since the Biden administration took office in 2021.
CBO believes that, of those 4.3 million, “about a quarter,” or roughly 1.1 million, “were qualified aliens upon arrival.” That term has particular relevance because the 1996 welfare reform law restricted eligibility for federal programs to “qualified aliens” who have served a five-year waiting period. However, CBO also notes that “about half,” or over 500,000, “of those qualified aliens” arriving during the surge “were exempt from the five-year waiting period,” and therefore could immediately receive taxpayer-funded benefits.
The Lack of Regulation Poses Both Direct and Indirect Effects
The report examined both the direct and indirect effects of the migration surge, the latter of which takes into consideration second-tier impacts. For instance, direct effects include spending on services to house, feed, educate, or detain migrants. Indirect effects, on the other hand, include things such as an increase in property tax revenue because migrants’ demand for shelter raises housing prices, or a surge in the school-age population, necessitating the construction of new schools.
On net, CBO estimated the direct costs to state and local governments from the immigration surge at $9.2 billion in 2023 alone. Including indirect costs raised the total even further, to $9.8 billion in 2023.
These estimates of total costs may even be optimistic, particularly as it relates to the revenue CBO believes immigrants paid in taxes: “In CBO’s estimation, rates of compliance for income taxes were 15 percent lower among the surge population than among the total population because those immigrants were more likely to work without authorization.”
It makes sense for CBO to assume, as it did, no difference in compliance between the surge population and non-immigrants regarding sales taxes. Sales taxes accompany a transaction at a grocery or department store, or online, irrespective of an individual’s citizenship or immigration status. Likewise, CBO reasonably estimated lower income for the surge population because these individuals were younger and less educated than the whole population. If larger percentages of undocumented migrants — than the 15 percent non-compliance rate CBO assumes — fail to report their income or otherwise pay income taxes, then states would face even greater costs than the roughly $10 billion yearly figure quoted in the report.
The Trump Administration Must Secure the Border
Other nuggets in the CBO report further illustrate the tangible impact of the border chaos. For instance, the budget office notes that “in 2023, 550,000 children in public schools, or 1.1 percent of public school students, were part of the surge population.” Integrating into the educational system more than half a million children — many, if not most, of whom do not speak English as a first language — poses sizable costs for districts around the country. These educational costs further add to the costs states face regarding border security and housing.
A report that places the total gross — as opposed to net — costs of the immigration surge on state and local governments at $28.6 billion in a single year demonstrates why Congress needs to provide the resources necessary to secure the border. The Biden-era chaos posed ramifications far beyond our southern border, and Washington must take every effort to ensure that it never recurs.
