Commuters could be forced to pay hundreds of pounds extra to travel to work as train fares may jump by 5.8% next year

Rail commuters face paying hundreds of pounds more for season tickets next year amid forecasts that fares in England could jump by nearly 6 per cent.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said today that Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation rose to 4.8 per cent in July.

The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated fare rises in 2026, but this year’s 4.6 per cent hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.

If that formula is used to set next year’s fare increase, the cost of rail travel will jump by 5.8 per cent. 

Train punctuality in Britain is at its lowest level in more than five years.

Ben Plowden, chief executive of lobby group Campaign for Better Transport, said: ‘Today’s inflation figure could mean a big fare rise for rail passengers next year, especially if the Government decides to go with an above-inflation increase like we saw this year.

‘With the railways now moving under public control, the fundamental question for the Government is how to use its role in setting fares policy to deliver a more affordable rail network and encourage more people to travel on it.

‘Next year’s annual rise represents the first real opportunity for the Government to show passengers – both current and future – just how it plans to do this.’

A South Western Railway train leaves Basingstoke station in Hampshire in February 2022

Passengers wait in the concourse area of London Euston railway station in December 2024

About 45 per cent of fares on Britain’s railways are regulated by the Westminster, Scottish and Welsh Governments.

They include season tickets on most commuter journeys, some off-peak return tickets on long-distance routes, and flexible tickets for travel around major cities.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said there will be an update on changes to regulated fares later this year.

Operators set rises in unregulated fares, although these are likely to be very close to regulated ticket increases because their decisions are heavily influenced by governments.

Office of Rail and Road figures show trains in Britain reached 66.7 per cent of scheduled stops within a minute of the timetable in the year to July 19.

That is the worst performance since the year to May 30, 2020.

Some operators are currently struggling with dry weather.

A lack of moisture in clay soil embankments has disturbed track levels, preventing trains from safely travelling at full speed in parts of southern England.

A DfT spokesperson said: ‘The Transport Secretary has made clear her number one priority is getting the railways back to a place where people can rely on them.

‘The Government is putting passengers at the heart of its plans for public ownership and Great British Railways (GBR), delivering the services they deserve and driving growth.

‘No decisions have been made on next year’s rail fares but our aim is that prices balance affordability for both passengers and taxpayers.’

The Government is nationalising train operators as their contracts expire.

GBR is an upcoming public sector body that will oversee Britain’s rail infrastructure and train operation.

Earlier this week, pressure group Railfuture said ‘it would be outrageous’ if fares even rose by as much as 5.5 per cent.

Bruce Williamson, spokesman for the group, said: ‘What would be the justification for jacking up fares above inflation? There isn’t any.

‘It’s ripping off the customer, driving people off the trains and onto our congested road network, which is in no-one’s interest.’

Mr Williamson said he would support the Government marking its nationalisation of train operators by freezing fares.

He continued: ‘One would hope that there would be some efficiency savings and economies of scale that you get from having a more integrated railway.

‘But of course, I strongly suspect that if there are any savings to be had, they’d be swallowed up by the Treasury and not passed back to the passengers, which I think is wrong.’