Donald Trump extends his lead over Kamala Harris in Daily Mail election model as key battleground state of Michigan moves his way

Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail’s election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November’s election.

A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

But plenty can change in the final weeks of campaigning.

And with Trump on a 58.8 percent of winning to Harris’ 41.1 the result remains very much in tossup territory.

However, the latest polling data now suggest that Trump is on track to win 302 electoral college votes to Harris’ 236, the most decisive lead yet. 

Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners who crunches the numbers, said in his latest briefing note: ‘Things continue to move against Harris—Trump’s win probability has increased by another two points since last week. 

‘The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points. 

‘The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign. 

‘New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.’

The model weighs all the latest polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics to deliver each candidate’s chances of winning in the electoral college.

Overall, it predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).

At the same time, a string of recent polls have shown critical swing states edging towards the former president.

The most crucial of those may be a Mitchell Research and Communications poll  for  Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris in a head-to-head match-up by one point.

Former President Donald Trump has his biggest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model, which is updated twice a week

If all the other third-party candidates are included they finish neck-and-neck on 48 percent each. 

Last week, Michigan was seen as a toss-up state by our model. The new poll edges it towards Trump, and he wins it in 50.1 percent of simulations.

Among other states, Arizona moves from ‘lean Trump’ to ‘likely Trump,’ and North Carolina has done the same, with it falling to the former president in 70.3 percent of simulations. 

At the same time, a New York Times/Siena College poll published Monday showed Harris regaining a national lead over Trump. That could change things in our model once those data are factored in. 

Trump was in Michigan and Wisconsin at the end of last week and is due to campaign in Pennsylvania Wednesday. 

Harris was also in Michigan last week and will hit up Nevada and Arizona later this week.