When a fresh-faced Marco Rubio arrived in Iowa to campaign in the 2016 Republican primary election, the state’s voters were captivated by his story.
As usual, it was the first state to vote for the party’s nominee, and Rubio – the son of a bartender and a maid – crisscrossed the cornfields, charming Iowans along the way.
Rubio ultimately lost, and Donald Trump became president, but many of the people he met remember him well.
‘Marco Rubio made a big impression here – and a lot of friends,’ a well-connected Republican strategist in Iowa told the Daily Mail. ‘People warmed to him, he’s very likeable. He was humble, thoughtful and did pretty damn well. People remember him. Vance has been here one or two times, I think.’
The prospect of a 2028 run-off between Vice President JD Vance and Rubio is a rumor that refuses to go away, despite Rubio’s own efforts to dismiss it.
He recently told Lara Trump on Fox News that he wants to remain Secretary of State through January 2028 and ‘would be satisfied with that as the apex of my career.’
Vance ‘would be a great nominee,’ he said. ‘He’s a close friend and I hope he intends to do it.’
The persistent talking up of Rubio as a potential nominee is fueled partly by widespread praise for the role he has played in Trump’s administration.
JD Vance (left) and Marco Rubio (right) are stars of President Donald Trump’s administration
In addition to Secretary of State, he held down three other posts. He has even been described as the ‘new Kissinger.’
This week, CNN analyst Eric Bradner reported that Rubio was polling particularly well in Iowa, and that he was ‘surprised’ how often his name came up there.
Ultimately, insiders who spoke to the Daily Mail agree there would be no path for Rubio unless Vance decided he didn’t want the nomination.
Even in Iowa, Vance is a prohibitive favorite and would win any contest, they say.
‘Vance has name ID off the charts,’ said the Iowa Republican strategist. ‘He’d have the imprimatur of a sitting president, and he’d have the MAGA mantle.
‘Vance is truly connected and has an extremely important role with the MAGA base.’
The strategist said Vance would have ‘a big head start’ against any challenger, should he choose to run.
Still, Vance’s biggest threat could be a newcomer not yet on anyone’s radar.
‘It could be someone like Marco Rubio was eight years ago,’ the insider continued. ‘A new senator or governor throwing their hat into the ring simply to become better known.’
Marco Rubio (pictured) waves to supporters during the Rubio watch party at the Downtown Marriott Hotel in Des Moines, Iowa, on February 1, 2016
Vice President JD Vance swears in Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who ns flanked by his wife Jeanette Rubio
A Republican strategist in Washington agreed and said there would be no need for Trump to weigh in on the matter.
‘I think JD Vance is the nominee 100 percent,’ he said. ‘He’s an incredibly gifted political athlete. Marco Rubio is a great guy as well, but JD Vance is the vice president, he’s going to be the party’s nominee. The vice president’s the nominee, that’s how it goes.’
The source said voters would see more of Vance on the road in the run-up to next year’s midterm elections.
‘They’ll really realize that he’s an incredibly gifted individual. He happens to be a great guy as well, so, on a retail level, he’s incredibly charming.’
However, there could be a third possibility in 2028, according to some, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem being a name that comes up.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem participates in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations in Phoenix, Arizona
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (second from left) speaking as President Donald Trump (far right) listens during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday, July 8, 2025
On Tuesday, Trump again declined to explicitly declare Vance his successor, but said he was ‘most likely’ to take over.
‘In all fairness, he’s the vice president,’ Trump said. ‘I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form.’
That raised the possibility of a potential Vance-Rubio ticket.
But, Trump added, ‘I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here.’
One of those people was Noem, who is thought to have higher political ambitions.
She is a former member of Congress and a former governor of South Dakota.
‘She’s now, arguably, the most qualified person to be president,’ said pollster Frank Luntz. ‘She’s done the issues that people care about in a way that Republican primary voters will appreciate.
‘She’s got a perfect resume and she communicates the Trump philosophy with a Midwestern sensibility, and that’s perfect in states like Iowa.’
But Luntz said Vance had one of the best vice presidential debate performances of any candidate in modern times, in which he ‘destroyed’ Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, during the 2024 campaign.
President Donald Trump speaks as Vice President JD Vance (second from right) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (far right) listen during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office of the White House on Monday, July 14, 2025
According to focus groups conducted by Luntz, that performance made Vance a ‘major player’.
‘That’s why it was, in the end, such a smart choice for Trump to choose him. If you take a look at the polling, it was straight up from there (for Trump),’ he said. ‘Vance demonstrated his value. It was truly exceptional.’
Luntz said Rubio, meanwhile, had redefined himself within the Republican Party.
‘No longer are people saying to me “Little Marco,” they now see that his role is essential, and they see him as a leader.’
