The US government has been shut down for a month, and Republican insiders on Capitol Hill are betting the current impasse will become the longest in history.
The funding debacle stems from Senate Democrats’ opposition to a Republican-authored government funding bill that lacks provisions for Obamacare funding.
Currently in its 29th day, the shutdown is poised to soon become the longest period in American history during which the federal government has not been fully operational.
President Donald Trump set the current record during his first term for a shutdown that lasted 35 days, between December 2018 and January 2019. The dispute then was over billions in border wall funding, which Democrats objected to and never ultimately included in the funding package.
If the government is not funded before next Wednesday, November 5, the ongoing funding gap will surpass that first term feat.
‘My current bet on the office whiteboard is November 6,’ one GOP aide told the Daily Mail. ‘I know a lot of offices are having internal bets on how long it goes on.’
Many of the nine Senate and House aides interviewed for this story made brash jokes about the shutdown. But hardly any officials offered to wager money, instead, as the impasse stalls their paychecks, they are wagering bragging rights.
‘What else is there to do?,’ quipped the GOP aide.
Congressional staffers prepare a chart for display prior to a government shutdown press conference with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson in the Capitol.
Online prediction markets like Kalshi, shown above, are giving even essentially 50-50 odds that the shutdown will end after 46 days around November 16
Johnson has repeatedly said for the last month that the impetus is on the Democrats to come to the negotiating table and re-open the government
One image of a whiteboard in an congressional office reviewed by the Daily Mail showed half a dozen office staffer’s names with different guesses as to how long the shutdown would pass – all of the guesses were wrong.
‘Everyone has lost at this point,’ the aide joked.
However, they were equally as quick to recognize the personal impacts, like missing checks, needing to pull from savings and feeling insecure about the slow drip of outflowing cash that comes when maintaining a lease and typical expenditures without regular income.
Less amusing, however, was a memo that went out to House staff on Wednesday, indicating their pay for the entire month of October will be delayed due to the ongoing shutdown.
All but one congressional aides out of the nine interviewed agreed that the current shutdown will become the longest on record, bleeding into the end of next week.
That aide believed a deal would be reached early next week after additional benefits expire, though she added: ‘It’s obviously a lot harder to get out of a shutdown rather than stumble into one.’
Two suggested it could drag on as long as into the holidays.
‘I pray to God this won’t go down as the longest shutdown in history, but I really don’t see an off ramp,’ a senior Senate aide told the Daily Mail. ‘Unless something really shakes the Democrats, I’d say this could go as far as Christmas.’
Unsure about exactly when a deal could be cobbled together, most of the aides interviewed guessed that the disagreement would be resolved by mid-November.
Still, there’s pressure on lawmakers to act as soon as possible.
A woman holds a sign reading ‘Protect SNAP,’ as food aid benefits will be suspended starting November 1 amid the ongoing US government shutdown, during ‘A Rally for SNAP’ on the steps of the Massachusetts Statehouse in Boston
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., expresses his frustration as he criticizes Republicans for their healthcare policies, at a news conference on day 29 of the government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025
November 1 is a major funding deadline for SNAP, the US’s largest food assistance program, and WIC, a resource plan for infants and mothers.
If there’s no agreement by then, and there’s seemingly no deal in sight, then the programs will run out of money to provide for food and supplies for babies and their moms.
The expiring programs are just one of the Political calculations, staffers say, ranging from the upcoming statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey, to concerns over how to pay US troops.
A senior Republican Senate aide suggested that Democrats might be delaying to heighten anxiety among furloughed federal workers in Northern Virginia, potentially boosting Abigail Spanberger’s chances in next week’s election.
‘If they win New Jersey and Virginia—possibly severely gerrymandering the latter through the state legislature—it will be easier for Senate Democrats to declare a symbolic victory and re-open the government,’ the aide said.
So far, the Trump administration has repurposed $8 billion in research and development funds to pay the 1.3 million active-duty troops.
That cash reserve could soon run out, though VP JD Vance reassured GOP senators during a lunch this week that the Trump administration thinks it can continue to pay the soldiers, ‘at least for now.’
