Labour is at panic stations today after suffering by-election disaster in a part of Wales it has dominated for a century.
Plaid Cymru romped home in the contest for the Caerphilly seat in the Senedd, with Reform securing an extraordinary surge to come second.
Labour insiders pointed the finger at Keir Starmer for the abysmal showing, which saw the party’s vote nosedive 35 per cent as it trailed in third.
The result will fuel fears of a meltdown in full Welsh elections in May, where polls indicate the First Minister role will be lost for the first time since devolution.
Nigel Farage had pledged to ‘throw everything’ at the campaign.
But Plaid emerged victorious with a majority of 3,848 votes, and a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour, on a high turnout of more than 50 per cent.
Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the result of the Caerphilly by-election showed Labour was in ‘severe trouble’ in Wales after Plaid Cymru won the Senedd seat.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.
‘Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36 per cent but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.’
Sir John said Reform UK’s result is ‘pretty consistent’ with how Mr Farage’s party has been polling generally.
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle celebrated coming out on top of the Caerphilly by-election
Labour insiders pointed the finger at Keir Starmer for the abysmal showing, which saw the party’s vote nosedive 35 per cent as it trailed in third
The result will embolden Plaid in its efforts to enter government in Wales next year.
And is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Senedd was first established in 1999. The party has dominated the area in all elections for a century.
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, more than 47 per cent of the total.
That was up almost 19 per cent from the 2021 result in the constituency with a swing from Labour of almost 27 per cent.
Reform candidate Llyr Powell got 12,113 votes – the party had only 495 four years ago – with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailing on 3,713, down almost 35 per cent.
Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats getting 516 and 497 respectively.
Cabinet Office minister and Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds tried to put a brave face on the result in interviews this morning.
He told LBC that when he was knocking on doors in Caerphilly, ‘what’s been coming through to me very strongly is a frustration with the pace of change’.
He added: ‘People want us to go faster with the pace of change.
‘We’ve had thousands of conversations on the doorstep. We’ve listened. We treat the result with humility. We will then act upon that, redouble our efforts in the six months before the Senedd election.’
Labour must demonstrate ‘in word and in deed’ that it is the best option for voters in Wales, he said.
He said Sir Keir had not visited the area because the campaign was led by Welsh Labour.
Mr Thomas-Symonds said he had not yet spoken to Sir Keir after the result was announced, but said: ‘The Prime Minister is 100 per cent concerned about Wales’.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said ‘the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear’.
‘They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.
‘Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly.’
He continued: ‘This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative.
‘We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.
‘The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.’
Mr Whittle said: ‘I want to thank everyone who put their trust in me and Plaid Cymru to represent Caerphilly.
‘It will be my honour to serve you as your new member of the Senedd.
Reform UK’s Llyr Powell had been in a close battle with Whittle
‘I’m ready to get to work straight away by making sure our local schools are properly supported, our libraries stay open, our GPs see people when they need to, and that everyone in Caerphilly gets the same chance to do well.
‘I’ve spent my whole life fighting for this community, and I won’t stop now.
‘Tonight’s result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.
‘We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.’
