Liberals bloodbath begins with Sussan Ley on the brink of losing leadership spill

• The coalition suffers its worst defeat at the May federal election, winning just 43 seats in the House of Representatives.
• Sussan Ley defeats Angus Taylor in a leadership ballot shortly after the election loss, 29 votes to 25. Ms Ley becomes the party’s first female leader. Taylor is named as opposition defence spokesman in her shadow cabinet.
• Ley faces split of the coalition after the Nationals walk away from the political partnership over divisions on nuclear energy and regional investment funds. The two parties reunite after a week.
• The opposition leader faces pressure after the front bench resignation of West Australian MP Andrew Hastie and later Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.
• The Liberals abandon their net-zero by 2050 target following pressure from conservative Liberal members on Ley, with a series of party room meetings held to thrash out a position.
• The coalition comes under pressure from One Nation in the polls, with former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce later defecting to the minor party.
• The coalition suffers a second split after three Nationals senators vote against the party position on hate speech laws brought forward in a special sitting of parliament after the Bondi terror attack.
• In January, Taylor and Hastie hold a secret meeting in Melbourne hours before a memorial service for former Liberal MP Katie Allen.
• The following day, Hastie announces he will not contest the leadership despite speculation he would challenge.
• After more than two weeks apart, the coalition agree to reunite in February, with the Nationals rebels to spend six weeks in the sin bin before returning to shadow cabinet.
• A Newspoll shows One Nation outpolling the opposition, with the coalition falling to a record low 18 per cent primary vote, with Ley having a minus 39 net approval rating.
• Taylor resigns from Ley’s cabinet, saying the party needs a new direction, but does not immediately challenge for the leadership or call a spill.
• Several frontbenchers follow suit the next day, with a spill formally requested.
• A party room meeting is called to decide the leadership.

How the spill will work:

• Following Taylor’s resignation from the front bench, Liberals Phillip Thompson and Jess Collins requested a leadership spill take place, with a special party room meeting locked in.
• At the meeting, candidates for the leadership are asked to put their name forward, and will give a short speech outlining reasons for support
• A vote will then take place of all 51 members of the Liberal Party in federal parliament, with the winner being named party leader and opposition leader
• If there are more than two candidates, a first round will be held with all contenders, with the person with the lowest number of votes eliminated. Successive votes are held until there is a final two
• A separate ballot will be held for a deputy leader with the same process as the vote for the leader.

Sussan Ley’s supporters continue to hope that the spill vote will be close, but even they admit that she’s behind by at least three votes.

Angus Taylor’s team are hopeful that the spill motion can success by as many as eight or nine votes.

Either way, once a majority of Liberals vote for a spill it is a sure sign that Ley will lose any subsequent vote for who should lead, and she may therefore not even contest that vote. If she does, they is a clear sign that major divisions persist within the parliamentary team, as does personal animosity by Ley towards Taylor.

There have been some suggestions that once Ley loses the spill motion if it is a tight defeat, another moderate such as Tim Wilson or Andrew Bragg might run against Taylor, but that is unlikely.

As unlikely as a moderate surprise move to deny Taylor the leadership would be after a successful spill motion, it would certainly turn this whole showdown on its head, even if the moderate candidate narrowly lost, as well as highlighting the deep DEEP factional divisions within the party. Not to mention doubts about Taylor.