Former President Donald Trump is on course to win the 2024 presidential election with 292 electoral college votes to Joe Biden‘s 246, according to a major new study Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) modeling conducted by Stack Data Strategy. MRP has been used to successfully predict outcomes in UK and Spanish elections in recent years, with around 15,000 respondents from across the United States taking part in this study.
With Trump at the top of the ticket, Republicans can expect to flip Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” said Joe Bedell, the Head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, adding: “Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin.”
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The news was not so good for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who the data finds would lose to Biden almost as badly as the late Senator John McCain lost to former President Barack Obama in 2008. The data shows DeSantis even losing North Carolina and Texas, a feat Democrats have not managed since the 1970s.
Further study reveals that Trump would also trounce California Governor Gavin Newsom, beating him better than the 45th President would beat Biden. With Newsom at the top of the ticket, Democrats could lose Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Nevada, in addition to those that would already flip red against Biden.
Stack Data Strategy has offices in Washington, D.C. and London, England and is a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society.
