Majority of Conservative voters say Boris Johnson should resign now, YouGov snap poll reveals

The majority of Conservatives now think Boris Johnson should quit, a snap poll of voters revealed today, but there is no clear choice to replace him with ‘don’t know’ still the answer among one in five Tory members.

And in more bad news for the Prime Minister, it is now the first time in his premiership that Tory voters have been more likely to want to see him go than stay in No 10.

Mr Johnson is fighting for his political life today as rebel MPs try to deliver the fatal blow after the dramatic resignations of Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.

The PM is facing a brutal day in the wake of the bombshell departures and a host of other more junior exits, running the gauntlet of PMQs at noon before a three-hour grilling from the powerful Liaison Committee – including some of his fiercest critics.

And it appears that public support for him is also draining away – including amongst Tory voters who previously catapulted him into Downing Street on a Brexit wave three years ago.

A YouGov poll of 3,000 people last night revealed that most 2019 Conservative voters (54%) now also want to see the prime minister resign. And 69 per cent of all voters – more than two out of three – also believe he should fall on his sword.

But despite the public desire to see the prime minister evicted from Number 10, far fewer Britons expect Johnson to go willingly. Just one in five (21%) believe he will resign, up from 7% at the beginning of June. Two thirds (68%) expect him to try and stay.

A recent survey by the influential ConservativeHome website has said that Ben Wallace and Penny Mordaunt are the favourites to amongst Tory members if and when a new leadership election starts. Liz Truss is in third place followed by Tom Tugendhat and Nadhim Zahawi. Rishi Sunak is way off the pace in ninth and Sajid Javid in 12th.

But editor Paul Goodman said that ‘don’t know chalked up 20 per cent or above for most contests. Which means that in most pairings, the contenders would have a fifth of the vote to try to squeeze were the contest real’.

A YouGov poll has revealed that for the first time the majority of Tory voters believe Boris Johnson should resign

The PM has been hit by scandal after scandal that has seen support from his own party falter. In March fewer that 20 per cent of Conservatives wanted him to go. Now it is more than half

The PM has been hit by scandal after scandal that has seen support from his own party falter. In March fewer that 20 per cent of Conservatives wanted him to go. Now it is more than half

Tellingly the majority of people do not think that Mr Johnson will leave No 10 quietly. Half believe he will not resign

Tellingly the majority of people do not think that Mr Johnson will leave No 10 quietly. Half believe he will not resign

The poll of 3,000 people last night also backed Rishi Sunak's decision to resign as Chancellor

The poll of 3,000 people last night also backed Rishi Sunak’s decision to resign as Chancellor

Boris Johnson was sombre as he addressed his cabinet yesterday (pictured). Hours later Sajid Javid became the first minister to quit over the Chris Pincher scandal

Boris Johnson was sombre as he addressed his cabinet yesterday. Hours later Sajid Javid became the first minister to quit over the Chris Pincher scandal

Boris Johnson was sombre as he addressed his cabinet yesterday. Hours later Sajid Javid (right today) became the first minister to quit over the Chris Pincher scandal

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace topped a key ConservativeHome poll of Tory members over who should replace Boris Johnson as the party's next leader

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace topped a key ConservativeHome poll of Tory members over who should replace Boris Johnson as the party’s next leader

Who is the favourite to replace Boris Johnson as the next Tory leader?

Penny Mordaunt – 4/1

Rishi Sunak – 4/1

Ben Wallace – 8/1

Liz Truss – 8/1

Nadhim Zahawi – 9/1

Jeremy Hunt – 10/1

Tom Tugendhat – 11/1

George Eustice – 20/1 

Michael Gove – 25/1

Dominic Raab – 28/1

Mark Harper – 40/1

Priti Patel – 40/1

Jacob Rees-Mogg – 80/1

Nadine Dorries – 200/1 

When it comes to Rishi Sunak, most Britons believe the chancellor was right to resign (56%), with Conservative voters tending to agree by 47% to 24%.

Mr Sunak remains joint favourite to be the next Tory leader with Penny Mordaunt at 4/1. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is at 8/1, the same odds as Liz Truss. New Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is at 9/1, but he is the only candidate whose odds are shortening with very bookmaker.

Jeremy Hunt is next at 10/1, but a recent poll of Tory members found that he would lose in a run off against all the main candidates.

Ben Wallace topped a key poll of Conservatives over who should replace Boris Johnson as the party’s next leader, after helping lead the response to the Ukraine crisis.

The Cabinet minister just pipped his predecessor, Penny Mordaunt, to top spot in the survey by the influential ConservativeHome website.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was the third most-favoured among Tory members to take over from the Prime Minister.

But Rishi Sunak – who for a long time was viewed as the most likely successor to Mr Johnson – has dramatically fallen out of favour with the Conservative grassroots following the controversy over his family’s finances and tax affairs. He will hope that his resignation will help.

Of the 755 people surveyed, Mr Wallace – who is at the forefront of Britain’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – was backed by more than 15 per cent of respondents. 

His popularity has dramatically increased since Vladimir Putin launched his barbaric assault on Russia’s neighbour, despite the Defence Secretary having fallen victim to a hoax call by Russian imposters in the early weeks of the conflict.

When ConservativeHome last asked Tory members who they favoured being the party’s next leader, in December last year, Mr Wallace wasn’t even named by those surveyed.

Mr Wallace also topped a separate monthly ConservativeHome survey of Tory members when they were asked how satisfied they were with the performance of Cabinet ministers.

He had a net satisfaction rating of more than 85 per cent, while Mr Johnson remained at the bottom of the table for the second month running on -21 per cent.

Ms Mordaunt, who was Mr Wallace’s predecessor at the Ministry of Defence and is now a trade minister, was the next most popular among Tory members as a future leader.

Mr Wallace also topped a separate monthly ConservativeHome survey of Tory members when they were asked how satisfied they were with the performance of Cabinet ministers

Mr Wallace also topped a separate monthly ConservativeHome survey of Tory members when they were asked how satisfied they were with the performance of Cabinet ministers

Anyone but Jeremy Hunt: It appears the former health Secretary would lose to all the main candidates

Anyone but Jeremy Hunt: It appears the former health Secretary would lose to all the main candidates 

Mr Wallace, pictured at Sunday's British Grand Prix at Silverstone, has dramatically increased in popularity during the Ukraine crisis

Mr Wallace, pictured at Sunday’s British Grand Prix at Silverstone, has dramatically increased in popularity during the Ukraine crisis

Penny Mordaunt

Rishi Sunak

Trade minister Penny Mordaunt was the next most popular among Tory members as a future leader – but Chancellor Rishi Sunak has seen his popularity plummet in recent months

A snapshot amongst Britain's bookmakers puts Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt at the top

A snapshot amongst Britain’s bookmakers puts Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt at the top

Labour has enjoyed a small but consistent lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls for the past seven months.

The size of the lead has varied, from an average of just three points to as many as 11 points.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party first moved ahead in the polls in early December 2021, around the time stories first began to emerge of Downing Street parties during Covid-19 lockdowns.

Before this point, Labour had spent much of the previous few years trailing well behind the Government.

Based on a seven-day rolling average of all national published polls, Labour’s vote share stood at 39% on July 5, ahead of the Conservatives on 33%, with the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 6%.

A year ago, the Conservatives were averaging 41%, Labour 33%, the Lib Dems 9% and the Greens 5%.

Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts.

With the next general election still more than two years away – the latest possible date is January 23 2025 – there is plenty of time for the national numbers to change.

But polls both shape and reflect the prevailing mood of the country, in turn affecting morale among politicians and party members alike.

The news for the Conservatives is equally grim when looking at Boris Johnson’s popularity scores.

The Prime Minister’s net favourability rating – the difference between the proportion of people saying they have a favourable opinion of him and those who have an unfavourable opinion – has been at or near an all-time low since January.

It currently stands at minus 51 points, according to figures compiled by the polling group YouGov.

Boris Johnson has had negative favourability ratings for almost his entire premiership, save for a few weeks in spring 2020 at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

It is only in recent months that the score has sunk below minus 40, however.

Ministers Ben Wallace, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak tipped to join former high-fliers Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt in any run to succeed PM 

Liz Truss: Instagram-friendly Foreign Secretary who loves a Maggie-themed photo 

  • 46-year-old Foreign Secretary and South West Norfolk MP
  • Has persistently been linked with a leadership challenge
  • Has used role to recreate some classic images of ex-PM Margaret Thatcher
  • Has faced a tough time with comments on the Ukraine conflict 

Ms Truss has been regularly linked with a tilt at No10. The former international trade secretary was promoted last year to succeed Dominic Raab.

The South West Norfolk MP has held a string of Cabinet posts under successive party leaders and is popular with the party grassroots.

But while she has been hawkish over the war in Ukraine, the conflict has hit her prospects after several stumbles. 

Prior to the February 24 invasion she visited Russia for talks with her Kremlin counterpart Sergei Lavrov, in which she overtly channeled the style of Margaret Thatcher on a similar trip 35 years previously.

Her use of Instagram to share images of her looking tough and commanding has also drawn comment. 

The South West Norfolk MP has held a string of Cabinet posts under successive party leaders and is popular with the party grassroots.

The South West Norfolk MP has held a string of Cabinet posts under successive party leaders and is popular with the party grassroots.

Liz Truss posed on a tank during a visit to British troops on deployment to Estonia last November, which drew comparisons with Margaret Thatcher (below)

Liz Truss posed on a tank during a visit to British troops on deployment to Estonia last November, which drew comparisons with Margaret Thatcher (below)

Liz Truss in Moscow this year

Margaret Thatcher in 1987

The Foreign Secretary posed for pictures in Red Square in a fur coat and hat, 35 years after the former Tory premier did the same on a visit to the then Soviet Union.

But she received a bit of a mauling from Putin’s attack dog, who said their talks had been like ‘the deaf talking to the blind’.

She was also criticised early in the conflict for urging Britons to go to fight for Russia even if they have no military experience, advice later contradicted by senior military figures.

But the Remain voter from 2016 has become a born-again Brexiteer in the years since, something that will aid her in any vote. 

As Foreign Secretary she has taken on responsibility for negotiating changes to the Brexit agreement with the EU to sort out the political impasse in Northern Ireland. A deadlock-breaking agreement is unlikely but unilateral action by the UK is being mooted, which could help boost her credentials.  

Jeremy Hunt: Former Cabinet minister who wants another go after losing to Boris in 2019

  • Former foreign secretary and longest-serving health secretary in history
  • 53-year-old lost heavily to Mr Johnson in 2019 leadership vote final
  • Former Remainer who has become a convert to the Brexit cause 
  • Has made no secret of desire to run again with increasingly high profile

Jeremy Hunt lost heavily to Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election that followed the resignation of Theresa May. 

But he is showing no signs of letting the mauling at the hands of Tory members dissuade him three years later.

The former minister turned Health Committee chairman has made a series of increasingly high profile public interventions on health policy in recent weeks. 

And he has consistently refused to rule out running to replace Boris Johnson if he quits. 

He tweeted before the no confidence vote: ‘Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.’

The former minister turned Health Committee chairman has made a series of increasingly high profile public interventions on health policy in recent weeks.

The former minister turned Health Committee chairman has made a series of increasingly high profile public interventions on health policy in recent weeks.

Previously he refused to say whether Boris Johnson was ‘honest’ as he warned the Prime Minister has a ‘big mountain to climb’ in winning back Tory voters.

The South West Surrey MP cast doubt on the PM’s ability to once again prove a Tory vote winner as he insisted it would be a ‘mistake’ to dismiss the party’s local election losses as ‘mid-term blues’. 

But the former Cabinet minister insisted now was not the time for renewed efforts to topple Mr Johnson and said he ‘hoped’ the PM would lead the Tories into the next general election.

The comments were seen as a warning shot to the PM – and a clear message to Tory MPs – that he is waiting in the wings should Mr Johnson continue to stumble. 

Like Truss he is a former Remain voter who has become a convert to the Brexit cause. He also has his own fair share of gaffs in his locker, including describing his Chinese wife Lucia – with whom he has three children – as ‘Japanese’ in an interview.  

Ben Wallace: Hawkish Defence Secretary who has talked tough about ‘tonto’ Putin

  • 52-year-old former British Army officer is Defence Secretary
  • He is currently the most popular minister with the Tory grassroots 
  • Sandhurst-educated father of three has led efforts to arm Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion
  • Was targeted by Russian pranksters who managed to speak to him on a video call in March

Currently the most popular minister with Tory grassroots, according to the Conservative Home website. 

The Defence Secretary’s low profile has risen into full view as he emerged as one of the foremost Cabinet hawks on the Ukraine War. 

The 52-year-old former Scots Guards officer has been at the forefront of efforts to supply Kyiv with weapons and expertise to fight off the Russian invasion, which has boosted his support base and name recognition.

The Sandhurst-educated father of three has overcome a Russian attempt to humiliate him after a Kremlin-backed prankster managed to get through to him on a video call, parts of which were later broadcast on YouTube.

He was asked if he supported Ukraine’s ‘nuclear aims’ by a man claiming to be the PM of Ukraine.

He has also avoided being implicated in the worst failures of the UK’s retreat from Afghanistan last summer, with blame being generally laid at the door of the Foreign Office.

The Defence Secretary's low profile has risen into full view as he emerged as one of the foremost Cabinet hawks on the Ukraine War

The Defence Secretary’s low profile has risen into full view as he emerged as one of the foremost Cabinet hawks on the Ukraine War

He tweeted before Boris’ no confidence vote: ‘In 2019 Boris won with a majority of 80. He has delivered victories in seats we have never held before. 

‘On Covid, on Ukraine he has helped deliver a world leading response. He has my full confidence.’

Rishi Sunak: Once high-flying Chancellor who has now resigned

  • Chancellor was top-rated minister at the end of 2021 after Covid largesse
  • He quit his role and Chancellor of the Exchequer this evening 
  • His profile went into freefall after a series of controversies in 2022
  • Wife revealed to be a non-dom taxpayer living in Downing Street
  • Sunak himself also faced questions over US Green Card possession 

Now At the end of 2021 the Chancellor was the number one candidate to succeed Boris Johnson. 

His largesse with taxpayers’ cash during the Covid crisis – furlough payments and other measures – and slick social media campaigns made him widely popular within the party and with the wider electorate.

It was a rapid rise to the top for a minister who only became Chancellor weeks before lockdown kicked in early in 2020. 

But the popularity of ‘Brand Rishi’ has taken a tumble in 2022 amid a series of controversies and rows with No10 – culminating in his resignation this evening.

Quitting his role and abandoning Boris, may help save his tarnished reputation. 

At the end of 2021 the Chancellor was the number one candidate to succeed Boris Johnson.

At the end of 2021 the Chancellor was the number one candidate to succeed Boris Johnson.

Rishi Sunak was hit by a political backlash over the news that his heiress wife Akshata Murty was domiciled in India for tax purposes

Sunak told the Sun: 'I'm an elected politician. So I know what I signed up for. It's different when people are trying to attack you by coming at your family and particularly your wife. It's unpleasant, especially when she hasn't done anything wrong'

Rishi Sunak was hit by a political backlash over the news that his heiress wife Akshata Murty was domiciled in India for tax purposes

In the spring it was revealed his multi-millionaire heiress wife Akshata Murty was revealed to be living in Downing Street while having non-dom tax status.

She has legally avoided paying a huge UK tax bill by paying £30,000 a year to register as based in India.

He insisted she hasn’t ‘done anything wrong’ while accusing his critics of ‘smearing her to get at him’. She later agreed to pay full UK tax.

Later it emerged Mr Sunak, a father of two and former international banker, himself held a US Green Card for a year into his term leading the Treasury. 

While the status would not save him any money on his tax bill, it carries a responsibility to make the United States ‘your permanent home’.

There were also a series of rows with No 10 after recovery spending and his involvement with Partygate: he received a £50 fine for attending Boris Johnson’s surprise – and rule-breaking – birthday party in No10 in June 2020, even though he claimed he was just passing through on his way to a meeting.

His supporters blamed No10 for embroiling him in the controversy, souring an already acidic relationship within Downing Street.

Penny Mordaunt: popular Brexiteer trade minister who pointedly refused to back Boris today

  • Trade minister and Royal Navy reservist who backed Jeremy Hunt in 2019
  • Ignored other ministers tweeting support for PM to instead write about D-Day
  • She was the first woman to serve as defence secretary and was also international trade secretary
  • Appeared on reality TV show in 2014 wearing just a swimsuit 

Penny Mordaunt has already emerged as possibly one of the least subtle potential candidates to run.

While other ministers tweeted their support of the Prime Minister at the time of his no confidence vote, she pointedly tweeted … about attending a D-Day ceremony in Portsmouth, where she is an MP. 

‘Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay,’ she wrote.

The Brexiteer, 49, a naval reservist who once appeared on reality TV in a swimsuit, is popular with party members.

She was the first woman to serve as defence secretary and was also international trade secretary and is currently a trade minister. 

Supporters have pushed her credentials as the potential unity candidate any leadership race appears to lack – she is a Brexit voter who backed Jeremy Hunt in 2019. 

She was the first woman to serve as defence secretary and was also international trade secretary and is currently a trade minister.

She was the first woman to serve as defence secretary and was also international trade secretary and is currently a trade minister.

While other ministers spend this morning tweeting their support of the Prime Minister, she pointedly tweeted ... about attending a D-Day ceremony in Portsmouth, where she is an MP.

While other ministers spend this morning tweeting their support of the Prime Minister, she pointedly tweeted … about attending a D-Day ceremony in Portsmouth, where she is an MP.

The Brexiteer, 49, a naval reservist who once appeared on reality TV in a swimsuit, is popular with party members.

The Brexiteer, 49, a naval reservist who once appeared on reality TV in a swimsuit, is popular with party members.

Ms Mordaunt has already been on resignation watch once this year. In January she spoke out against a proposed £1.2 billion underwater electricity cable project backed by a Russian oligarch and major Tory donor.

She opposed plans by Aquind, co-owned by Alexander Temerko, to construct the interconnector under the Channel between Normandy and Portsmouth.

Temerko, who previously ran a firm producing weapons for Russia’s military, and Aquind have given more than £1 million to the Tories and the oligarch has regularly featured in photos at fundraisers with Prime Ministers and their Cabinets.

Government sources said Mordaunt was ready to quit if the cable was approved. The project was later rejected.

Tom Tugendhat: Iraq and Afghanistan veteran turned China and foreign affairs hawk

  • An Army reservist who served in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • The son of a high court judge and the nephew of a Tory peer.
  • Father of two said in 2017 that it would be ‘great to be PM’. 

Another Tory MP with military experience. Tugendhat, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, is a confirmed Boris critic who has taken aim at the government over its attitude to China and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Some MPs believe the 48-year-old, an Army reservist who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, would be well-suited to the role and represents the ‘best chance for a fresh start’.

However, some are concerned about his lack of political experience and voting for a second posh PM in a row. He is the son of a high court judge and the nephew of a Tory peer.

Mr Tugendhat, who is married with two children, has previously made clear that he would fancy a tilt at the top job, saying in 2017 that it would be ‘great to be PM’. 

Some MPs believe the 48-year-old, an Army reservist who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, would be well-suited to the role and represents the 'best chance for a fresh start'.

Some MPs believe the 48-year-old, an Army reservist who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, would be well-suited to the role and represents the ‘best chance for a fresh start’.

He was a member of the Territorial Army when the Iraq War broke out in 2003 and he was mobilised as an Arabic-speaking intelligence officer to serve with the Royal Marines. He went into Iraq as part of Operation TELIC – the initial invasion.

After the war he returned to a job in the City of London but then went back to Iraq to help with the economic reconstruction of the country.

In 2006 the Foreign Office then asked Mr Tugendhat to go to Afghanistan to help grow its national security council. The Tory MP can speak Arabic, Dari and French.

The Tory MP was applauded in the House of Commons during a debate on the UK’s exit from Afghanistan in August 2021 as he detailed his experience in the country.

He told a silent chamber: ‘Like many veterans, this last week has seen me struggle through anger, grief and rage—through the feeling of abandonment of not just a country, but the sacrifice that my friends made.

‘I have been to funerals from Poole to Dunblane. I have watched good men go into the earth, taking with them a part of me and a part of all of us. This week has torn open some of those wounds, has left them raw and left us all hurting.’

Nadhim Zahawi: Minister who came to the UK as a child refugee and made a fortune 

  • Kurdish Iraqi arrived in the UK as a refugee from Saddam Hussein’s regime 
  • One of the wealthiest members of Parliament, he set up polling company YouGov
  • He is said to have a property empire worth around £100million. 

Mr Zahawi is seen by some as an outside choice to replace the PM. He has a strong personal back story that culminated in him becoming the first Kurdish Iraqi MP.

The Education Secretary fled Saddam Hussein’s Iraq with his family when he was a child. Privately-educated at King’s College School in West London and University College London where he studied chemical engineering. 

One of the wealthiest members of Parliament, he went on to be named ‘entrepreneur of the year’ by Ernst & Young and set up successful polling company YouGov. 

He is said to have a property empire worth around £100million.

The Education Secretary fled Saddam Hussein's Iraq with his family when he was a child. Privately-educated at King's College School in West London and University College London where he studied chemical engineering.

The Education Secretary fled Saddam Hussein’s Iraq with his family when he was a child. Privately-educated at King’s College School in West London and University College London where he studied chemical engineering.

The father-of-three was elected MP in 2010 – the first Kurdish Iraqi to be elected to Parliament.

The Brexit-supporting minister is trusted by Number 10 and is a regular feature on the morning media round.

Despite initially backing Dominic Raab for Conservative party leader in 2019, he has been loyal to Mr Johnson ever since.

He was previously children’s minister from January 2018 to July 2019, during which time he attended the controversial Presidents Club Ball.

He was said to have been given a dressing down by the chief whip after complaints of sexism and harassment at the all-male gathering for the business elite.

During the MPs expenses scandal, he was forced to apologise for claiming taxpayers’ money to heat his stables on his Warwickshire estate.

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