Spring statement 2026 live: Rachel Reeves to deliver budget forecast as oil prices surge amid Middle East conflict

Photos show chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of her spring statement speech.

The chancellor has said her economic plan “is the right one for Britain”.

In a post on X, she wrote: “Today will set out how we are cutting the cost of living, cutting borrowing and growing the economy.“

UK borrowing costs have surged ahead of the chancellor’s spring statement announcement.

Bond yields, the returns government promise to buyers of their debt, have spiked as concerns grow that Iran will withhold supplies of gas and oil.

Amid surging energy prices, investors are worried that inflation could be triggered, making it hard for the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

The economic situation worsens as Rachel Reeves is less than an hour away from delivering a speech in which will say the financial climate is “stronger and more secure”.

Rachel Reeves will deliver her spring statement at 12.30pm today to the House of Commons.

The Treasury will then publish the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) when the chancellor finishes speaking.

Although the economy is reeling from the Middle East conflict with stock markets taking a hit, the OBR is unlikely to include this in their forecast as the events are too recent.

Ms Reeves is expected to say the economy is “stronger and more secure” as a result of decisions taken by the government.

She will then point to falling inflation and interest rates cuts as successes which have resulted in an easing of living pressures.

However, the chancellor is under pressure to keep fuel prices down as US-Israel war with Iran has caused oil prices to surge.

Tomorrow, we can expect The Resolution Foundation to provide an in-depth analysis of the Spring Statement.

There has been “no change” to Ireland’s security status or threat level amid the escalating conflict in the Gulf, the country’s deputy premier has said.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Tanaiste Simon Harris said: “We’re continuing to monitor the situation globally and any potential impact for Europe.”

Meanwhile, the Government estimates that between 22,000-23,000 Irish citizens are in the region, and Foreign Affairs Minister Helen McEntee said a “relatively low number” had already left.

Mr Harris said “all options are on the table” to assist Irish citizens who need help out of the region.

Speaking to reporters before a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, he said “whatever can be done to practically and effectively and efficiently” help would be done.

He said this could include chartering flights, adding the resumption of commercial flights was currently not likely.

“There are a number of options. One, commercial flights could resume. At the moment, that doesn’t look particularly likely.

“Two, Ireland could charter flights directly. It may not be possible to get the flights into the epicentre, if you like, of the conflict – that wouldn’t be desirable for anybody’s safety, but the likes of Oman and others could be considered.

“And then, thirdly, there’s a possibility in the hours ahead, of European countries moving together. So all of this is being considered in real time.”

Donald Trump’s interviews have revealed that his close relationship with Keir Starmer is finished, political editor David Maddox explains that the break down is much more than a disagreement over Iran:

The prime minister was the envy of his international allies for his ability to, against the odds, develop a strong relationship with the famously volatile US president.

A woman from Belfast among the thousands of UK nationals stranded in Dubai said she has been given no update as to when she will be able to get home.

Thousands of flights from the UAE have been cancelled and large areas of airspace remained closed across the Middle East amid the intensifying conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces.

Etihad Airways flight EY67, carrying stranded UK nationals, departed from Abu Dhabi capital on Monday afternoon and landed at Heathrow at 7.17pm, according to flight tracking company Flightradar24.

However, the airline said in an update on Tuesday that its scheduled commercial flights to and from Abu Dhabi will remain suspended until Thursday 5 March.

Meanwhile, a limited number of flights have also taken off from Dubai.

The majority of departures from the region remain cancelled, however.

Teigan McFadden, 21, from Belfast, who travelled to the UAE to celebrate her birthday told the BBC she had to contact her airline to find out her flight, scheduled for today.

She remains in her hotel and is waiting for news from the UK as to when she can get back.

Ms McFadden told the BBC: “It’s not a government (the UAE) I know, I trust my own government, I’m waiting for updates from back home.

“As far as I’m concerned, I do think I’m in the grey area. My airline hasn’t contacted me much, I had to contact them to find out my flight was cancelled.

“I was due to leave seven minutes ago – my flight was due to leave at 11.20 (local time) this morning. I have no update on when I’ll actually get home.

“I can see the airspace is getting authorised for small flights. There’s talk of a military evacuation.“Is that actually something they’re going to be able to provide for British citizens or is that just talk that’s never going to be put through?”

She added: “I’ve had no physical updates from our government to say what’s going on.”

Donald Trump said that the UK has been “much different” from other allies.

Asked whether the UK is needed as an ally for its action in the Middle East, he told The Sun: “It’s not going to matter, but (Sir Keir Starmer) should have helped… he should have.

“I mean, France has been great. They’ve all been great.

“The UK has been much different from others.”

Asked about accusations that Sir Keir is pandering to Muslim voters for political reasons, the President said: “It could be.”

Speaking about the UK, Mr Trump said: “It’s also not such a recognisable country. I mean, you look at what happened over the last period of time and it’s very different.”

Asked what advice he would give to Sir Keir, he said to “open up the North Sea” and “stop people from coming in from foreign lands who hate you”.

Chris Philp said Sir Keir Starmer has “seriously undermined” the UK’s relationship with the United States by not initially allowing the US to use British military bases for strikes on Iran.

The shadow home secretary told the Press Association that action against Iran was “completely justified”.

“They sponsor terrorism around the world, including Hamas and the October 7 massacre of innocent women, children and men.

“Iran has attacked shipping in the Straits of Hormuz in the Gulf, and they’ve also tried to acquire a nuclear weapon, in addition to sponsoring terrorism on our own streets here in the UK.

“Action against a regime like that is completely justified.”

He added: “Keir Starmer, through his weak and indecisive approach to the Iranian regime, has undermined our relationship with the USA, who wanted our support.

“They got that support from countries like Canada and Australia. So through his actions, Keir Starmer has very seriously undermined our special relationship with the US, which has been the bedrock of our security for decades now.”