Starmer is on the brink and the Tories are way out of the picture. This should be Nigel Farage’s moment… but this is why he’s blowing it: DAN HODGES

Last Thursday, Nigel Farage strolled into the luxury Raffles hotel on Whitehall for a book launch.

The author of the ­400-page tome was a man called George Cottrell, although he is more ­commonly known around Westminster as ‘Posh George’.

And Posh George’s new contribution to the literary scene has an arresting title: ‘How To Launder Money’.

Cottrell certainly knows what he’s talking – and ­writing – about. In 2017, he spent several months in a US prison for wire fraud. But as the attendance of Farage and his senior lieutenants demonstrated, he has been swiftly welcomed back into Reform’s inner circle.

But why? By publicly embracing a convicted fraudster, what exactly does Reform’s leader think he’s playing at?

Next week, the most vital by-election in half a century takes place in Gorton and Denton. A former textile and mining town, the ­Manchester constituency is a central brick in what’s left of Labour’s crumbling Red Wall.

According to analysis ­conducted by Electoral ­Calculus, house prices here are considerably lower than the national average. Compared to the rest of the country, residents of Gorton and ­Denton are young and have low levels of education. They are less likely to work in ­professional occupations, and their household income is low.

You’d think Reform’s ­leadership would be straining every sinew and muscle to wrest this solid ­working-class seat from Keir Starmer’s grasp. Tirelessly pounding down doors in the wind and the rain to rid the nation of the blight of ­Starmerism.

Far from it. Two weeks out from polling day, they opted to quaff ­champagne with a man who was jailed for ­offering to use the dark web to launder money for drug dealers.

Two weeks out from polling day, Reform’s leadership opted to quaff champagne with a man who was jailed for offering to use the dark web to launder money for drug dealers

For Reform to succeed, Farage, pictured at a Reform rally this week, must be seen to be the champion of working Britain. Not the champion of posh spivs and failed Tory cabinet ministers

This should be Nigel Farage’s moment to strike: the Government is lurching from crisis to crisis. The Prime Minister is teetering on the brink. The Tories are still receiving blood transfusions after the mauling they received from the electorate 18 months ago.

But the reality is, he’s ­blowing his chance.

On Monday the bookmakers Ladbrokes announced that, for the first time since May 2025, Reform is no longer the favourite to win most seats at the next ­General Election.

Obviously, the bookies are not the most reliable ­psephologists. But it represents a straw in the wind. A wind that is starting to turn against Farage and his party.

It’s now nine months since they entered the political jet stream by breaking 30 per cent in the national opinion polls.

But since then they have been flatlining. The 13-point lead they enjoyed over Labour has slumped back to nine.

There are many reasons for this. One is the massive ­strategic blunder Nigel Farage has made by ushering a host of Tory ministerial retreads into the Reform fold. Not so long ago, Farage declared on social media: ‘My message to you is clear, plain and simple. Never trust a Tory. Did you get that? I’ll repeat it. Never trust a Tory.’

But this week he unveiled his new shadow cabinet.

And with the appointment of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman as shadow chancellor and shadow ­education secretary respectively, he was suddenly ­asking the country to trust two of the most high-profile members of the last ­discredited Tory government with their jobs, businesses and schools.

A second problem is that with the Right riven down the middle, there are simply not enough indigenous ­members of the small ‘c’ ­conservative tribe for Reform to sustain momentum.

Kemi Badenoch has ­successfully staunched the Tory bleeding.

Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe – his ego pumped full of Elon Musk’s X-rated social media rocket fuel – ­continues on his ­kamikaze mission to become ­Britain’s Ralph Nader (in the 2000 US ­Presidential election Nader, the Green Party candidate, syphoned off just enough ­liberal votes from Democrat Al Gore to hand George W Bush victory).

All of which has resulted in bookies predicting that Labour are – somehow – favourite to be the single largest party after 2029, despite only polling 19 per cent, and having as their leader the most unpopular Prime Minister since records began.

But there is another factor that can be attributed to Reform’s decline. Nigel Farage believes the basic laws of politics no longer apply to him.

During the storm surrounding his tax returns, Donald Trump famously observed ‘I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot ­someone, and I wouldn’t lose any voters’.

It’s a theory Farage is ­currently testing to ­destruction. His attendance at Posh George’s book launch proves it.

Up until now voters been prepared to overlook – even embrace – Farage’s inconsistencies and eccentricities, says Dan Hodges

Yes, it may seem Reform’s leader has been rewriting the political rules. But it’s a misconception.

The rules are actually ­written by the ­voters. And up until now they’ve been prepared to overlook – even embrace – his inconsistencies and eccentricities.

But, by openly flaunting his relationship with a convicted fraudster, he is at best taking working people in constituencies like Gorton and Denton for granted. And at worst he is taking them for fools.

Indeed, there are signs that voters are waking up to it. Canvassers in Gorton have told me about two under­currents in constituents’ ­attitudes. A strong anti-­Labour – or more specifically anti-Starmer – mood. But also a growing Stop Reform movement.

The Caerphilly by-election last October, which Plaid Cymru snatched from underneath Farage’s nose, was a warning. For the first time, people voted tactically in large numbers to keep Reform out.

But their leader seems not to have heeded that warning. Rather than continue to press home the all-­important message that he represents an alternative to the despised British establishment, he’s starting to give the impression his primary ambition is simply to become a part of it.

For Reform to succeed, Farage must be seen to be the champion of working Britain. Not the champion of posh spivs and failed Tory cabinet ministers.

I suspect Reform will still – just – win in Gorton and Denton. Which could provide them with fresh momentum.

But let’s invert the ­equation. Reform like to pose as the plucky ­underdogs of British politics. But they currently have absolutely everything running in their favour.

A despised Prime Minister. A divided and fractious Labour Party, especially in the North, where Starmer kneecapped their favourite son. A Tory party still ­picking its way back from electoral oblivion.

An economy that’s ­flatlining. Paedophilia ­scandals breaking on a daily basis. Journalists being smeared. The courts destroying what’s left of the Government’s shattered credibility. And all while we are only ever 24 hours away from the next humiliating Downing Street U-turn.

Nigel Farage should win the by-election next week. In fact, he should walk it. And he better had. Because if Gorton turns its back on him, it may not be long before Britain does the same