Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski are eyeing up hundreds of seats in May’s local elections – as they look to capitalise on voters decisively rejecting Keir Starmer at the polls.
In the most perilous moment yet of his premiership, Labour’s defeat at the Gorton and Denton by-election shows the party has entered an ‘electoral Valley of Death’ where it is squeezed for votes from Left and Right, critics said.
The local elections could prove ‘apocalyptic’ for Labour, it was warned.
It follows the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer storming to victory in the Greater Manchester constituency – leaving Labour wallowing in third place behind Reform UK in what had long been one of the party’s safest seats.
Mr Polanski said his Green Party had achieved a historic result in a seat that had been 127th on its target list.
He said it showed voters wanted ‘an alternative to this failing government’ and to ‘reject the divisive policies of Reform’.
He added: ‘There are now no no-go areas for the Green Party. We will do it again at the local elections in May.’
Mr Polanski also predicted a ‘tidal wave’ of Green MPs elected at the next general election after Ms Spencer took 40.7 per cent of the vote in Gorton and Denton, with a swing of 27.5 per cent.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage posted on X: ‘Roll on the elections on May 7. It will be goodbye Starmer and goodbye to the Tory party’
Sir Keir yesterday vowed to ‘keep fighting’ and said Labour had fielded an ‘excellent candidate’ when asked whether he had been wrong to block Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing in Denton and Gordon
New MP Hannah Spencer and Green Party leader Zack Polanski attend a press conference on February 27, 2026 in Manchester
He said: ‘When I was elected leader of the Greens I said we were here to replace Labour and I meant it.
‘This used to be one of Labour’s safest seats. In this by-election almost half of their 2024 voters abandoned them and many switched to voting Green, meaning they finished third.
‘The Green Party saw a record-breaking swing in our direction and more than tripled our vote.’
Meanwhile, Reform’s second-placed Matthew Goodwin said he had ’embarrassed Labour in one of their strongest seats’. Looking ahead to the local elections, he said: ‘I think if we can do this here, we can do this pretty much anywhere.’
His party’s leader Mr Farage later posted on X: ‘Roll on the elections on May 7. It will be goodbye Starmer and goodbye to the Tory party.’
The fallout comes as polling from research firm More in Common revealed that Labour has only lost more votes in by-elections three times since 2000.
Voters rejecting Labour in Gorton and Denton shows the party under Sir Keir has ‘fallen into the electoral Valley of Death’ as it stands ‘rejected in the centre, rejected on the right and now rejected on the left’, University of Manchester professor of political science Rob Ford said.
Speaking to Sky News, he said the May elections ‘may become apocalyptic’ if the Greens continue to make hay in the wake of their seismic victory in south Manchester. ‘So many Labour seats in Green-friendly territory are up, including all seats in inner London and many metropolitans.’
Mr Ford added that Labour ‘risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros’ of Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield and Sunderland, for instance, and by the Greens in the emerging ‘green wall’ – more diverse, student and graduate-heavy Labour areas where Reform are no threat.
The Greens are confident of winning the party’s first ever directly elected mayor in Hackney in May, and are also hoping for a ‘historic breakthrough’ at the Senedd elections in Wales.
Sir Keir yesterday vowed to ‘keep fighting’ and said Labour had fielded an ‘excellent candidate’ when asked whether he had been wrong to block Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing.
But Labour MPs are looking to the local elections with dread. Its Southport MP, Patrick Hurley, told the Daily Mail: ‘I fully expect that the local elections coming up will be very, very, very difficult for us and we may well lose very hard working and good councillors’.
Another Labour MP told us that May’s elections will be ‘a bit of a turkey shoot’ where they expect their party to ‘lose seats to all kinds of different parties in all kinds of different places’.
They said: ‘It will be Reform gaining from us in post-industrial places, the Greens gaining from us in inner-city areas, Independents will gain in some places.
‘The Tories might even make a little comeback in others. It’s going to be a bit of a turkey shoot where everyone’s trying to grab some seats off Labour.’
