Dr. Rebecca Grant is a Washington, D.C.-based national security analyst who has worked with the United States armed forces and who now, at the Lexington Institute, writes copiously on topics ranging from Russia and China to technology and national security topics. So when she expresses an opinion on, say, Friday’s Alaska Summit between American President Trump and Russian President Putin, it’s worth reading and thinking over.
Her take on the Alaska Summit? President Trump “got what he needed.” Watch:
🚨“Pres. Trump got what he needed in Alaska.” — Dr. Grant, Natl. Security Analyst
“@POTUS has a MOMENTOUS deal in the works, but it’s very delicate. Trump has opened the starting gates, but he’s got to keep Putin & Zelenskyy in the race.
Good news? Trump has MASSIVE leverage.” pic.twitter.com/LucbyMSjLN
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) August 16, 2025
Dr. Grant said in part:
Well, I loved seeing the B-2 bomber, but let me tell you, President Trump made headway. He got what he needed in Alaska. President Trump had a momentous deal in the works, but it’s very delicate. Trump has opened the starting gates, but he’s got to keep both Putin and Zelensky in the race. Good news? Trump has massive leverage. Both over Russia and over Ukraine. Monday, I expect the focus to be on the territory, trades, and on the really ironclad European, NATO and U.S. security guarantees that will make it possible for Ukraine to to be safe and sovereign, and to contain Russia.
The “massive leverage” that President Trump has is primarily economic, and that is considerable; the United States is still the world’s largest economy. But that may not be enough, especially given some of the concessions the U.S. and Europe will be calling on Russia to make. Case in point: One thing that Tsar Vladimir I has been insistent on is that Ukraine not be admitted into NATO. So there’s a tightrope to be walked here, where Ukraine is under NATO’s umbrella while not being a part of NATO. Will Putin accept that? I suspect he won’t.
Dr. Grant also sees Ukraine ceding some of the territory Russia now controls in Ukraine:
I’d like to see every last Russian kicked out of Ukraine, but it’s looking like what they all are saying now, the facts on the ground, that there will be some Russian presence in that eastern Donbas. I’d like to see a priority on Ukraine getting back the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, having enough territory to be a stable and sovereign, and economically viable country. We know the U.S. is committed long-term with the minerals deal, and the arms agreement, and the backing with NATO, but, you know, it’s very hard to say, what we’re hearing is possibly a de facto recognition of some of those boundaries. I would have loved to have seen them kick out every single Russian but you know the Biden administration just did not provide a path for Ukraine to do that, Trump is now going to try to settle this at the negotiating table. It’s a heavy lift. And I feel for Ukraine not getting an immediate cease-fire, but this momentous peace project, this is where we are, and we’ve got to give it a chance to go forward.
As I’ve been saying and writing for some time now, the best Ukraine can probably hope for is a return to the status quo ante 2022, where Russia keeps Crimea and cedes back all of the territory in eastern Ukraine they now hold. Russia won’t give Crimea back to Ukraine; I just don’t see that happening under any circumstances. Russia seized Crimea in large part for the warm-water Black Sea port at Sevastopol, which is now Russia’s only Black Sea port. Putin (correctly) sees Crimea and that port as too vital for Russian trade to consider giving it up.
The problem is, it’s looking more and more like Ukraine will be pressured into giving up some of the territory in Ukraine proper that Russia now holds.
Read More: First Lady Melania Trump Evokes Children’s ‘Melodic Laughter’ in Personal Letter to Russia’s Putin
Is She Joking? Lisa Murkowski Describes a Meeting With President Trump Before Putin AK Summit.
Here’s the interesting thing. On Friday, as the Alaska Summit was going on, Dr. Grant penned a piece at the Lexington Institute reminding us of the United States’ greater geopolitical rival: China.
The China-Russia alliance has grown by leaps and bounds since Trump last met with Putin in 2019 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit on Osaka, Japan. China gave Russia the greenlight to try to take over all of Ukraine in 2022. China and Russia engage in high-stakes military exercises and tech deals. Both are sprinting ahead on new nuclear weapons and missiles. Don’t forget Iran and North Korea, junior partners whose drones and troops have added to the bloodshed.
So while Trump looks Putin in the eye at Joint Base Elmendorf, he will also weigh how close Putin really is to China’s Xi Jinping. It’s a scary scenario.
China counts on Russia as a partner in global confrontation. “Grynch,” NATO’s new commander Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, United States Air Force, is widely known by his callsign from his days as an F-16 and F-22 pilot. He recently said he worries that China could synchronize an invasion of Taiwan with a new Russian attack on the Baltics or another part of Europe.
That scenario, a coordinated attack by Russia somewhere in Europe while China simultaneously attacks Taiwan – that would be (if you’ll allow a massive understatement) difficult for the United States to respond to. So we may well see a peace deal in Ukraine – only to see something else break out, somewhere else in Europe, somewhere in the Pacific – or both. But, we should also note, both Russia and China have problems of their own: Economies that are struggling, populations on the edge of a demographic cliff. Those are not things that contribute to national stability.
We do live in interesting times. And, to repeat once more, George Santayana’s caution: Only the dead have seen the end of war.
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