The Trump administration is considering a ‘weeks-long campaign’ in Iran that could look like ‘full-fledged war’ and prove ‘existential for the regime’ in a move that could have a ‘dramatic influence on the entire region.’
Fears are mounting that the US could be on the brink of a major military confrontation with Iran, with sources warning that any operation would be much larger in scale than recent interventions and could begin sooner than many expect.
Insiders say a potential US strike would not resemble a limited or targeted mission but instead unfold as a sustained, weeks-long campaign that would look ‘like full-fledged war.’
The operation is expected to be coordinated with Israel and would be broader in scope than last year’s 12-day conflict, which escalated when the US joined Israeli efforts to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
Such a campaign is described as potentially ‘existential for the regime’ in Tehran, with the capacity to reshape the balance of power across the Middle East.
Sources warned it would have a ‘dramatic influence on the entire region’ and could define the remaining years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Despite the stakes, there has been little public debate in Washington, with congressional attention and public focus directed elsewhere.
Tensions have been building for weeks, with Trump having previously considered military action in early January following the killing of thousands of protesters by the Iranian regime.
The Trump administration is considering a ‘weeks-long campaign’ in Iran that could look like ‘full-fledged war’
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford is among the military armada moving into the Middle East
US Air Force F-22s in the UK, on the way to the Middle East to support B-2 bombers, pictured at RAF Lakenheath today
When that opportunity passed, the administration shifted strategy, combining renewed nuclear negotiations with a strong military build-up in the region.
Talks held in Geneva this week between Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lasted three hours, with both sides claiming they ‘made progress,’ however US officials say major gaps remain.
Speaking to Fox News, US Vice President JD Vance said discussions ‘went well’ in some respects, but admitted that ‘in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.’
He added that while Trump still wants an agreement, he could soon conclude that diplomacy has ‘reached its natural end.’
Meanwhile, US military presence in the region has expanded significantly.
Two aircraft carriers are now deployed alongside a dozen warships, supported by hundreds of fighter jets and advanced air defense systems, with more reinforcements on their way.
Over 150 US cargo flights have already transported weapons and ammunition into the Middle East.
In just the past 24 hours, an additional 50 fighter jets, including F-35s, F-22s and F-16s, have been sent to the region.
This comes as the UK has blocked the US from using RAF bases to launch a strike on Iran, prompting anger from Trump.
The disagreement over the use of the British military sites is behind Trump’s withdrawal of his support for Sir Keir Starmer’s deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a report has claimed.
The White House is drawing up a detailed military plan for an attack on Iran involving the use of both Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, the site of America’s fleet of heavy bombers in Europe.
Now with the build-up of American aircraft and ships, defence officials reportedly briefed Trump that the US will be ready to begin a war by Saturday.
As per international law, there is no formal distinction between a nation carrying out a strike and those in support, if the latter have ‘knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act’.
The UK has not yet granted permission to the US to use the military sites in the event that Trump orders an attack on Tehran, because of concerns that the strike would be a breach of international law, according to a report in the Times.
Trump’s military deployments and increasingly forceful rhetoric have also made backing down without significant concessions from Iran politically difficult.
Israel, which has pushed for a more aggressive approach targeting not only Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes but also regime change, is already preparing for the possibility of war within days, according to Israeli officials.
Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran on January 9
Timelines remain uncertain, with some US sources like Senator Lindsey Graham telling Axios strikes could still be weeks away. Others believe the window could be much shorter.
One Trump adviser said: ‘The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is a 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.’
The US has given Iran a two-week deadline following the latest round of talks to present a detailed proposal.
Last June, Trump also set a two-week window to decide between continued diplomacy or military action, before launching Operation Midnight Hammer just three days later.
On Tuesday night, Trump spoke to Starmer about his ultimatum to Iran over its nuclear programme.
The following day, he published a post on his social media platform Truth Social attacking the UK over its plans to settle the future of the Chagos Islands with Mauritius.
‘I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that is “claiming” Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located in the Indian Ocean,’ Trump wrote.
‘Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime,’ he added.
Trump suggested the government’s support for a strike would be legal under international law, as Tehran could potentially attack the UK as well as ‘other friendly Countries’.
‘We will always be ready, willing, and able to fight for the U.K., but they have to remain strong in the face of Wokeism, and other problems put before them. DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!’ Trump concluded.
