It’s been nearly two weeks since the Trump administration launched a war against Iran, and President Trump is beginning to signal that he wants to wind it down. On Monday, he said “we’re way ahead of schedule,” and that the war would be over “very soon.” On Wednesday during a speech in Kentucky, Trump off-handedly declared “we’ve won,” and said it was all over “in the first hour.”
It’s understandable that Trump would be eyeing a quick end to the war, given spiking oil prices, growing public opposition to the war, and criticism from his MAGA base. But at this point it’s looking less and less like the president will simply be able to declare victory and walk away, however politically desirable that might be.
The main reason is that Iran, although badly wounded, is still fighting. This week it began targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. Two oil tankers were struck by Iran in Iraqi waters on Wednesday, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member. Videos of the burning oil tankers, reportedly struck by armed Iranian boats, circulated widely on social media. In addition, four other vessels were hit by Iranian projectiles in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday.
Since March 1, more than 20 ships have been attacked by Iran in the Persian Gulf. And it’s not just oil tankers or Western-flagged vessels. All types of ships have been hit, and not only in the Strait of Hormuz but across the Gulf. Marine traffic through the strait has now come to a standstill, with tanker crews unwilling to risk Iranian attack boats and missiles.
The Trump administration is clearly aware of the problem. This week, Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve, the largest such release in its history. And earlier this month, he announced the United States Development Finance Corporation would offer political risk insurance and financial guarantees to maritime trade passing through the Gulf, adding that, “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.”
So far, though, those escorts have not happened, even as Iranian attacks have ramped up. According to some news reports, the U.S. Navy will not be ready to escort tankers through the strait for weeks.
What all this means is that Trump is not going to be able to end the war and declare victory without at least securing the Strait of Hormuz and restoring the normal flow of oil traffic that underpins much of the global economy. Whatever other battlefield successes U.S. armed forces might have in Iran, if oil tankers cannot get out of the Gulf the regime in Iran will be able to impose a punishing political cost on the U.S.
To open the strait, the administration is going to have to choose among a set of actions that are, for obvious reasons, unappealing and unpopular: all-out regime change, the deployment of U.S. ground forces to the Iranian coast (among other possible deployments inside Iran, like using U.S. Special Forces to secure nuclear sites and materials), and Persian Gulf convoys for the foreseeable future.
While much depends on how these things are done, they will likely be deeply unpopular — and not just with Trump’s critics on the left. Polls right now indicate broad support for the war among Republicans and the president’s MAGA base, but the minute U.S. troops set foot on Iranian soil we should expect that support to begin eroding.
That’s why the Trump administration should begin a concerted and coordinated effort now to assuage Americans’ concerns about getting bogged down in Iran. If victory in Iran is going to require more than flying sorties over Iranian airspace and dropping bombs, then Trump and his officials should begin preparing the American people for that eventuality.
Indeed, support for any overseas military action often depends on managing Americans’ expectations. If the message is that the Iran war will be a walk in the park, or that it will be over by the end of the month, and it turns out that major, months-long operations (and possibly ground troops) are going to be required to secure the Strait of Hormuz or enact regime change, that will erode support for the war faster than anything.
What’s needed now, then, is clarity and consistency from the administration about what comes next, given the realities of the conflict at this stage. Thus far, Trump and his subordinates have been unable or unwilling to be as candid about the war as they ought to be, and indeed the White House appears to have no theory of victory in Iran, at least not one it’s able to communicate clearly and consistently. Moving forward, that will need to change.
Israel, for its part, has relatively straightforward strategic goals, namely, preventing the nuclear annihilation of Tel Aviv. It appears to be willing to reduce Iran to a failed state along the lines of Libya to achieve that goal. Given the stakes, it’s hard to argue with Israel’s logic.
But what is the end-state for Iran that we want? What is in our national interest, and what is a political settlement that the United States can live with in Iran? Defining that and communicating that to the American people is paramount for the Trump administration at this juncture. And yes, it’s likely that talking about the next steps in this war, and preparing the American people for escalation, will be unpopular.
Trump obviously wants a quick end to this war for political reasons, but as the conflict takes on a life and a logic of its own, he needs to be realistic with his countrymen about what exactly he’s gotten us into — and how he plans to get us out with something like victory.
