As President John F Kennedy once noted, ‘politics is a jungle’ – and never has that been more the case than for senior officials trying to stay in Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
For these ambitious souls, it is survival of the fittest where the strongest prosper while the weak, incompetent or gaffe-prone, risk being unceremoniously fired and humiliated in a souped-up version of The Apprentice.
On March 5, Kristi Noem became the first Cabinet secretary to be sacrificed in Trump’s second term, and now others are looking nervously over their shoulder as rumors circulate in Washington that the floodgates to a bloodbath could open.
With the midterms approaching in November, Trump is on the clock. Any firings can be expected to take place soon to avoid causing distractions to the campaign. If officials survive the next few turbulent months, then they should be safe until after November 3.
However, career-ending banana skins are everywhere – an ill-advised social media post or a flubbed TV appearance can send a senior official from the White House to the dog house.
A failure to voice vociferous enough support for the Iran war, or any involvement with the Epstein files, can be politically radioactive.
In such febrile times, rising star status can quickly evaporate, replaced by swirling rumors of being next on the chopping block. It is not a career for the faint of heart.
For Cabinet secretaries, the most important audience – aside from the president himself – is the people.
And some members of Trump’s Cabinet have experienced a notable downturn in public esteem in recent weeks.
According to a Daily Mail/JL Partners poll, none of the Cabinet figures surveyed have yet reached the same level of unpopularity as Noem, who has a net approval rating of minus 14 points, but some are getting close.
Those who have taken the biggest hits are officials connected to the Iran war.
Pete Hegseth, the War Secretary, is now the joint most unpopular Cabinet secretary with a net approval rating of minus 10.
Only 29 percent of those polled approved of his job performance while 39 percent disapproved, and the rest were unsure.
Hegseth’s net approval rating has plummeted 10 points since February 28, the day of the first strikes against Iran.
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio maintains his position as the most popular member of the Cabinet, with a net approval rating of plus 1.
Who will be next to go? Some of Trump’s Cabinet have seen their popularity plummet in the latest Daily Mail poll
‘You’re fired!’: Trump has so far been restrained as he wants to have a more stable Cabinet than his first term, but that could change amid differing views over Iran
However, Rubio, a main proponent of the Iran war, has also taken a hit, dropping eight points from February 28.
Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, has dropped seven points in that time to a net approval rating of minus four.
And, as gas prices surge due to the war, the previously popular Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also now underwater with the public, having fallen eight points to a net approval rating of minus 3.
Vice President JD Vance stands at minus five, with 37 percent approving of the way he is doing his job, and 42 percent disapproving.
In his first term, Trump canned Cabinet secretaries with alarming regularity.
Over those four years a total of 14 were fired or left office, eclipsing the numbers from Trump’s three predecessors combined.
Perhaps most memorably, Rex Tillerson was dismissed as Secretary of State by phone while in a restroom, leading to mockery that he had been ‘canned on the can.’
However, following the chaos of his first term, Trump has sought to keep a steady ship this time.
It took over a year for the first firing despite a litany of incidents and scandals that might previously have been grounds for dismissal.
Rumors are circulating about the future of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard
Attorney General Pam Bondi has overseen the controversial release of the Epstein files
Kristi Noem was fired as Homeland Security Secretary
Noem was eventually fired as Homeland Security Secretary following a series of controversies, including her handling of the deaths of anti-ICE protesters Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minnesota, money spent on planes for her department, and contracts it awarded.
The final straw appeared to have been her claim that Trump had sanctioned a $200 million taxpayer-funded advertising campaign which prominently featured Noem herself on a horse at Mount Rushmore.
Behind the scenes, Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wiles has instilled in the current White House a sense of discipline, emphasizing team work and collective responsibility, and a disdain for those attempting to become stars in their own right.
With that has also come zero tolerance for leaking or Cabinet officials who try to pin blame on their colleagues by surreptitiously planting information in the press.
Wiles has made clear she will not tolerate ‘backbiting’ or ‘drama.’
However, unlike Trump’s first-term Cabinet, which was ideological one-dimensional, this one includes an array of views and has been likened to Lincoln’s ‘Team of Rivals’.
Those ideological cracks are now beginning to show, particularly amid the Iran war.
At the moment, hawkish views held by Rubio and others are holding sway.
Some of those who are less enthusiastic about the conflict are being perceived as more vulnerable, particularly Gabbard, a former Democrat.
With campaigning for the midterms set to begin in earnest, congressional Republicans have made clear they are eager to avoid personnel sideshows at the White House, suggesting Trump will either wield the ax quickly or wait until after November.
However, there remains the possibility of losing control of the Senate in the midterms.
If Trump waits, and Republicans lose the Senate, Democrats could then make it very difficult to confirm new Cabinet nominees.
There has been speculation about Gabbard’s position after Joe Kent, who worked for her as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest against the Iran war last week.
In a blistering resignation letter, Kent wrote: ‘Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.’
Gabbard issued her own statement saying her job was to give the president the ‘best information available’ to base his decisions on.
She wrote: ‘After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.’
However, prediction markets are now suggesting Gabbard is likely to be out by the end of the year.
Others attracting bets include Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has taken a hit over her handling of the Epstein files, and FBI Director Kash Patel, who faced a backlash for traveling on a government yet to the Winter Olympics in Italy and then chugging beer in a locker room with the gold medal-winning USA men’s hockey team.
The Kalshi prediction site gives Gabbard a 66 percent chance of being out by the end of the year, Bondi, 49 percent, Hegseth 38 percent and Patel 32 percent.
In a recent statement, the White House said: ‘President Trump has assembled the most talented and America First cabinet and staff in history.
But, as Hegseth remarked immediately after Noem’s firing: ‘We all serve at the pleasure of the president.’
