The Department of War has ordered the amphibious warship USS Tripoli and its embarked Marines to the Middle East. The order comes as the war with Iran enters its third week and after a disastrous couple of public relations days in which the administration was forced to play defense against blatantly fake news generated by Congressional Democrats with the active connivance of CNN.
The USS Tripoli, along with the USS San Diego and USS New Orleans, make up the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group headquartered at Sasebo, Japan. Tripoli’s fangs come from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) stationed at Camp Hansen, Okinawa, Japan. The MEU has about 2,500 Marines, broken into a Battalion Landing Team of about 1,100 Marines and an air wing with V-22 Ospreys and helicopters. The MEU also has self-contained logistics and command-and-control capabilities.
The New York Times and other outlets are reporting that the entire Amphibious Ready Group and the MEU are headed to the U.S. Central Command area of operations. That is an assumption that, though reasonable, is not borne out by what we know. Thus far, two anonymous officials are the sourcing for that story. What is known is that the USS Tripoli with embarked Marines has been ordered into the theater. At a minimum, that will include about 1,700 Marines.
Then what?
If only one ship and part of an MEU are sent, we’re looking at either an effort to signal Iran that Kharg Island and other assets have been put into play or the MEU detachment will reinforce embassies and ground installations in the region. Given that it will take a couple of weeks for the Tripoli to arrive, I would place either mission in the “not likely” category.
If the entire MEU is deployed, then we are probably looking at action to clear the Iranian coast of the forces that have attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. I would not be shocked to see Kharg Island taken, as it has virtually no civilian population, it is easily defended, and it controls 100 percent of Iran’s oil sales.
Iran’s selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz can’t be allowed to continue because it sends a message that the U.S. and Israel not only failed to secure anything like a victory, but they actually made matters worse. The necessity of opening Hormuz to navigation under normal conditions is starting to drive strategic thinking about this war. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine said that U.S. Central Command will continue to “destroy the Iranian Navy to ensure freedom of navigation, and this means going after Iran’s mine-laying capability and destroying their ability to attack commercial vessels.” It is a recognition that the destruction of Iran’s navy was a necessary but insufficient means to achieve our goal of ending Iran’s piracy.
There has been a lot of profoundly stupid commentary online about how difficult it would be to hold Kharg Island. That commentary seems based on the assumption that Iranian guns, to the extent they still exist, could fire on Kharg Island and be able to do so more than once. That is absolute nonsense. If we decide to take Kharg Island, the MEU will bring counterbattery radar and artillery (actually HIMARS missile launchers) with them. This also fits in with President Trump’s promise that U.S. Navy ships will start escorting tankers in the Persian Gulf as we did twenty years ago during the Tanker War with Iran.
The fact that an MEU was not included in the original task organization indicates that the administration is concluding that there are things that air power alone can’t do. Sometimes you need a 19-year-old infantryman with guts and a bayonet to do the job right.
For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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