US Launches Air Campaign to Stop Iranian Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz – RedState

According to various reports, Iran has started laying mines in the Gulf of Hormuz. Reports from U.S. officials and multiple news outlets state that Iran has begun laying a limited number of naval mines in the Strait, using small vessels capable of deploying two to three mines at a time. Iran’s stockpile is estimated at 2,000 to 6,000, which, in the intelligence business, is known as a WAG, that is, a wild-assed guess. So far, estimates indicate that about a dozen mines have been laid. 

Unfortunately, in terms of shipping impact, one mine has the same effect as 100. No ship captain or owner wants to risk hitting it.

President Trump has promised dire consequences if Iran mines Hormuz; see Trump Promises Swift and Violent Response If Iran Deploys Mines in the Strait of Hormuz – RedState. “If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.”

 At around the same time that President Trump was announcing consequences, US CENTCOM carried out airstrikes targeting Iran’s last submarine, a Ghadir-class mini-sub.

The submarine hit is visible at 0:12 in the video below.

Iran’s threat to mine Hormuz has roiled the oil markets, sending the price per barrel to about $115 on Monday, up from the usual price of about $60. About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through there.

Traffic through Hormuz has dropped by about 97 percent since Iran threatened a blockade. Some ships were willing to risk attack and run the gauntlet by turning off the Automatic Identification System (AIS), a maritime version of the transponder, until out of danger.

This is the second time Iran has threatened to close Hormuz with mines. The first time was in 1987 when the U.S. launched Operation Prime Chance, using special operations forces to target Iranian speedboats laying mines in the Strait. This culminated in Operation Praying Mantis, launched in retaliation for the mine damage to the USS Samuel B. Roberts

Unlike the last time, the U.S. has mine-clearing vessels on the scene, even if we did pick the craptacularly worst time to decommission the last four purpose-built minesweepers in the Navy.

This will be the combat debut of the troubled LCS, Littoral Combat Ship (or little crappy ship). These will carry a specialized countermine package comprising an MH-60 Seahawk helicopter, unmanned surface vessels, sophisticated sensors, and, likely, remotely operated submarines. They are USS Canberra (LCS-30), USS Tulsa (LCS-16), and USS Santa Barbara (LCS-32).

Should Iran make anything more than a gesture toward mining Hormuz, it will be much less effective than the last bout. That was carried out in a much more restrictive tactical environment for U.S. forces. Engagements were limited to boats at sea that were visually confirmed as engaged in mine-laying. Those rules are no longer in effect. Last time, we did not attack boats in port and shore installations. More importantly, last time we didn’t have 24/7 surveillance.

Time is of the essence in this operation, as substantial delays in oil shipments will show up as higher prices at the pump.

For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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