A recession is an ‘increasing worry’ for Invesco, despite what the Fed is saying

A recession is an ‘increasing worry’ for Invesco, despite what the Fed is saying

The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are kicking in by slowing growth and cooling inflation, but also making a recession more of a threat, says Rob Waldner, Invesco’s chief fixed-income strategist and head of macro research. “We are increasingly worried about a recessionary environment,” Waldner told MarketWatch late Wednesday, despite what Fed officials said earlier in…

Could rising oil prices tip U.S. into recession? Why investors aren’t worried.

Could rising oil prices tip U.S. into recession? Why investors aren’t worried.

Oil prices set another 2023 high this week as concerns about a tightening market pushed the Brent benchmark crude close to $100 a barrel, complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring down inflation ahead of the September policy meeting and raising fears that a U.S. recession might be still on the horizon. History shows that…

Why coming decades may bring more frequent recessions and be good for investors

Why coming decades may bring more frequent recessions and be good for investors

The unique 40-year period from 1980 to 2020 characterized by mostly economic expansion in the U.S. will likely be replaced by a more regular pattern of boom-bust cycles and frequent recessions, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank DB, -1.92%. One reason is that higher inflation over the coming decades will limit central banks’ room to…

Powell could still hammer U.S. stocks on Wednesday even if the Fed doesn’t hike interest rates

Powell could still hammer U.S. stocks on Wednesday even if the Fed doesn’t hike interest rates

The past six weeks have left investors with more questions than answers about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, financial markets. And although the Federal Reserve is expected to leave its policy interest rates on hold Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell could still rattle markets as he’s probed for clues about the central…

UAW strike stirs stock-market worries over corporate margins

UAW strike stirs stock-market worries over corporate margins

The strike by United Auto Workers against the Big 3 carmakers is sparking a broader worry among stock-market investors over the outlook for corporate profits. “If the strike expands, investors can expect to see an impact on the broad economy and pressure on supply chains and corporate profit margins,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment…

U.S. stocks fall, S&P 500 books another weekly loss amid worries over inflation pressure, auto worker strike

U.S. stocks fall, S&P 500 books another weekly loss amid worries over inflation pressure, auto worker strike

U.S. stocks ended down Friday as investors worried about inflationary pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week as well as an auto workers strike. How stock indexes traded The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shed 288.87 points, or 0.8%, to close at 34,618.24. The S&P 500 SPX fell 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to…

Watch this ‘canary in the coal mine’ for signs of trouble in markets, Neuberger Berman CIO says

Watch this ‘canary in the coal mine’ for signs of trouble in markets, Neuberger Berman CIO says

Neuberger Berman, an asset manager with eight decades under its belt, is on the lookout for cracks in credit markets from the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign. Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer of multi asset, worries that several factors could be a tipping point for the economy, from an economic slowdown in China to U.S. consumers…

Dow heads for third day of gains ahead of coming inflation, retail-sales data

Dow heads for third day of gains ahead of coming inflation, retail-sales data

U.S. stock indexes remained higher in Monday’s final hour of trading, boosted by producers of luxury items and services including Tesla, as investors await inflation and retail sales data later this week to help guide the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. How stock indexes are trading The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA advanced 83 points, or 0.2%…

The likelihood of a U.S. recession is actually rising, says former Goldman Sachs chief strategist Abby Joseph Cohen

The likelihood of a U.S. recession is actually rising, says former Goldman Sachs chief strategist Abby Joseph Cohen

“‘While I don’t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months.’” — Abby Joseph Cohen Those are the words of Abby Joseph Cohen, former chief U.S. strategist at Goldman Sachs GS, +1.11%, who discussed her forecasts for the U.S. economy over the next…

When will consumers stop buying more stuff? It’s a key question for the stock market in the week ahead.

When will consumers stop buying more stuff? It’s a key question for the stock market in the week ahead.

Consumer spending has defied Wall Street expectations all year, both by keeping stocks afloat near record levels and by preventing the U.S. economy from running aground into a recession. That’s why sentiment around stocks in the week ahead could hinge on two related economic data points: the consumer-price index (CPI) for August due on Wednesday…

Why crude-oil rally can’t be ignored by stock-market investors — or the Fed

Why crude-oil rally can’t be ignored by stock-market investors — or the Fed

Central bankers like to focus on core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, but that doesn’t mean that they, or investors, will be able to ignore a renewed surge in crude-oil prices. In a Thursday note, DataTrek Research observed that the correlation between energy prices and the core reading of the consumer-price…

Stock market’s 2023 run may hit roadblock after August’s energy-led boost to U.S. CPI

Stock market’s 2023 run may hit roadblock after August’s energy-led boost to U.S. CPI

August was a hot month and it wasn’t just about the weather. Financial markets are now bracing for what’s likely to be a rebound in headline U.S. inflation next week, fueled by higher energy prices. Barclays BARC, +0.18%, BofA Securities BAC, +0.44%, and TD Securities expect August’s consumer price index to reflect a 0.6% monthly…

Energy ETFs are outshining the S&P 500, but it’s not just because of the oil rally

Energy ETFs are outshining the S&P 500, but it’s not just because of the oil rally

Hello! This is MarketWatch reporter Isabel Wang bringing you this week’s ETF Wrap. In this week’s edition, we look at ETFs in the soaring energy sector, which are taking the lead again after a recent jump in crude-oil prices following Saudi Arabia and Russia’s decisions to extend their voluntary oil production cuts through the end…

Nasdaq leads stock market lower as Apple extends slump

Nasdaq leads stock market lower as Apple extends slump

U.S. stocks were mostly lower early Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way down as Apple Inc. shares extended their slump and as investors continued to fret over expectations the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates elevated for some time to wring out inflation. What’s happening What’s driving markets Treasury yields…

This labor-market recession gauge is back in focus, former SAC Capital macro trader says

This labor-market recession gauge is back in focus, former SAC Capital macro trader says

The monthly jobs report for August points to a further cooling in the labor market, a welcome sign for markets and the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. But Peter Corey, co-founder and chief market strategist at Pave Finance, still sees two worrying signs in the report, and he isn’t totally convinced the Fed is done yet…

Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in marathon to get workers back to the office

Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in marathon to get workers back to the office

The U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark another milestone in the marathon to bring workers back to the office, but it won’t be a quick fix for landlords, according to Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody’s Analytics. Employers from Facebook parent Meta META, +0.17% to Goldman Sachs GS, -0.09% recently laid…

As U.S. stock-market investors celebrate soft economic data, is bad news becoming bad news again on Wall Street?

As U.S. stock-market investors celebrate soft economic data, is bad news becoming bad news again on Wall Street?

With second-quarter earnings season now largely behind the market, stock investors have been focusing on the latest economic data.  They have, for the most part, been reacting positively to “bad economic news,” or any data that may point to an economic slowdown.  It’s been almost nine months since the trend emerged, as softening economic data…

U.S. stock futures edge higher ahead of data that could show hiring slowdown

U.S. stock futures edge higher ahead of data that could show hiring slowdown

U.S. stock index futures pointed higher on Friday, ahead of data that could show a slowing pace of hiring, which would reassure investors that the Federal Reserve won’t take interest rates much higher. What’s happening Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +0.42% rose 78 points, or 0.2%, to 34869. S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.56% gained…

S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, attempting to beat back worst month since December

S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, attempting to beat back worst month since December

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite attempting to beat back their worst monthly performances since December, following Friday’s cautious take from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. What happened The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA ended up by 213.08 points, or 0.6% at 34,559.98. The S&P…

Fed’s Powell leaves investors with a cloud of uncertainty. Why the U.S. stock market faces a difficult week ahead.

Fed’s Powell leaves investors with a cloud of uncertainty. Why the U.S. stock market faces a difficult week ahead.

The U.S. stock market recovered from a three-week losing streak this week, though release of Nvidia’s earnings and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium provided some volatility, but the artificial intelligence boom offset rising bond yields. Next week, the July personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred…