The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are kicking in by slowing growth and cooling inflation, but also making a recession more of a threat, says Rob Waldner, Invesco’s chief fixed-income strategist and head of macro research. “We are increasingly worried about a recessionary environment,” Waldner told MarketWatch late Wednesday, despite what Fed officials said earlier in…
Oil prices set another 2023 high this week as concerns about a tightening market pushed the Brent benchmark crude close to $100 a barrel, complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring down inflation ahead of the September policy meeting and raising fears that a U.S. recession might be still on the horizon. History shows that…
The unique 40-year period from 1980 to 2020 characterized by mostly economic expansion in the U.S. will likely be replaced by a more regular pattern of boom-bust cycles and frequent recessions, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank DB, -1.92%. One reason is that higher inflation over the coming decades will limit central banks’ room to…
The past six weeks have left investors with more questions than answers about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, financial markets. And although the Federal Reserve is expected to leave its policy interest rates on hold Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell could still rattle markets as he’s probed for clues about the central…
The strike by United Auto Workers against the Big 3 carmakers is sparking a broader worry among stock-market investors over the outlook for corporate profits. “If the strike expands, investors can expect to see an impact on the broad economy and pressure on supply chains and corporate profit margins,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment…
U.S. stocks ended down Friday as investors worried about inflationary pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week as well as an auto workers strike. How stock indexes traded The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shed 288.87 points, or 0.8%, to close at 34,618.24. The S&P 500 SPX fell 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to…
Neuberger Berman, an asset manager with eight decades under its belt, is on the lookout for cracks in credit markets from the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign. Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer of multi asset, worries that several factors could be a tipping point for the economy, from an economic slowdown in China to U.S. consumers…
U.S. stock indexes remained higher in Monday’s final hour of trading, boosted by producers of luxury items and services including Tesla, as investors await inflation and retail sales data later this week to help guide the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. How stock indexes are trading The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA advanced 83 points, or 0.2%…
“‘While I don’t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months.’” — Abby Joseph Cohen Those are the words of Abby Joseph Cohen, former chief U.S. strategist at Goldman Sachs GS, +1.11%, who discussed her forecasts for the U.S. economy over the next…
Consumer spending has defied Wall Street expectations all year, both by keeping stocks afloat near record levels and by preventing the U.S. economy from running aground into a recession. That’s why sentiment around stocks in the week ahead could hinge on two related economic data points: the consumer-price index (CPI) for August due on Wednesday…
Central bankers like to focus on core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, but that doesn’t mean that they, or investors, will be able to ignore a renewed surge in crude-oil prices. In a Thursday note, DataTrek Research observed that the correlation between energy prices and the core reading of the consumer-price…
August was a hot month and it wasn’t just about the weather. Financial markets are now bracing for what’s likely to be a rebound in headline U.S. inflation next week, fueled by higher energy prices. Barclays BARC, +0.18%, BofA Securities BAC, +0.44%, and TD Securities expect August’s consumer price index to reflect a 0.6% monthly…
Hello! This is MarketWatch reporter Isabel Wang bringing you this week’s ETF Wrap. In this week’s edition, we look at ETFs in the soaring energy sector, which are taking the lead again after a recent jump in crude-oil prices following Saudi Arabia and Russia’s decisions to extend their voluntary oil production cuts through the end…
U.S. stocks were mostly lower early Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way down as Apple Inc. shares extended their slump and as investors continued to fret over expectations the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates elevated for some time to wring out inflation. What’s happening What’s driving markets Treasury yields…
The monthly jobs report for August points to a further cooling in the labor market, a welcome sign for markets and the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. But Peter Corey, co-founder and chief market strategist at Pave Finance, still sees two worrying signs in the report, and he isn’t totally convinced the Fed is done yet…
The U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark another milestone in the marathon to bring workers back to the office, but it won’t be a quick fix for landlords, according to Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody’s Analytics. Employers from Facebook parent Meta META, +0.17% to Goldman Sachs GS, -0.09% recently laid…
With second-quarter earnings season now largely behind the market, stock investors have been focusing on the latest economic data. They have, for the most part, been reacting positively to “bad economic news,” or any data that may point to an economic slowdown. It’s been almost nine months since the trend emerged, as softening economic data…
U.S. stock index futures pointed higher on Friday, ahead of data that could show a slowing pace of hiring, which would reassure investors that the Federal Reserve won’t take interest rates much higher. What’s happening Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +0.42% rose 78 points, or 0.2%, to 34869. S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.56% gained…
The U.S. stock market will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 4, along with the roughly $25 trillion Treasury market, giving workers an extra day for a long holiday weekend. Labor Day typically represents the last blast of summer before school starts back up. Wall Street tends to mark the holiday by prepping…
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite attempting to beat back their worst monthly performances since December, following Friday’s cautious take from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. What happened The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA ended up by 213.08 points, or 0.6% at 34,559.98. The S&P…
The U.S. stock market recovered from a three-week losing streak this week, though release of Nvidia’s earnings and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium provided some volatility, but the artificial intelligence boom offset rising bond yields. Next week, the July personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred…