Key election live updates: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation off to a VERY good start as first results trickle in and Liberal Party all but give up

Sky News has projected One Nation will claim victory in Farrer, making history as the first non-Coalition party to win the seat.

With the count still progressing, One Nation is leading the two-candidate-preferred vote with around 61 per cent, ahead of independent Michelle Millthorpe on approximately 39 per cent.

If the party is successful, the result will mark a major milestone for the party, representing the first time One Nation has secured a seat in the House of Representatives.

Pauline Hanson and David Farley have arrived at One Nation’s election night gathering in Albury, alongside Barnaby Joyce and One Nation senators Sean Bell and Malcolm Roberts.

Hanson stepped onto the stage at the Bended Elbow to greet supporters, choosing not to deliver a formal speech as the atmosphere grew increasingly confident.

Speaking to Sky News soon after, she projected strong optimism—appearing to all but claim victory while highlighting the party’s growing support.

‘People say you don’t have the seats… don’t underestimate us,’ she said.

Hanson said One Nation plans to expand its influence and ‘do more,’ adding that many voters view the party as ‘the last hope’ for change in Australia.

David Farley echoed that sentiment, describing a potential win as ‘the next step’ for One Nation and saying it would be ‘an honour to represent Farrer in the lower house.’

Booths in Albury and Griffith have lifted Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe’s (pictured, left) primary, but One Nation’s lead remains.

With 37 of 94 polling places now counted, Milthorpe has climbed to 25.3 per cent, an increase of more than eight points from 2025.

One Nation’s David Farley still leads on first preferences with 42.6 per cent, but his margin has narrowed.

The Coalition vote remains subdued, with Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski on 10.3 per cent and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson close behind on 10.3 per cent.

The Liberal Party is understood to have all but given up hope of its chances of victory following the early results.

In contrast, One Nation is increasingly confident, buoyed by its strong early performance.

Party leader Pauline Hanson is expected to arrive at campaign headquarters within the next half hour, as optimism grows within the camp.

Barnaby Joyce is also set to join her, with the pair expected to address the media shortly.

Election day in the Farrer by-election has been marked by chaotic scenes surrounding campaign signage.

The Australian Electoral Commission confirmed it removed a number of political corflutes at polling places after securing a last-minute interim injunction from the Federal Court.

The action followed the discovery of posters that featured the Commission’s logo alongside a table labelled ‘AEC Transparency Register’.

The material purported to outline donations received by independent candidate Michelle Millthorpe from groups including the Regional Voices Fund, Climate 200 and GetUp.

The AEC said it first became aware of one such sign outside a Springdale Heights polling place before identifying additional copies across the electorate.

In a statement, the Commission said the signage carried an incomplete authorisation and had the potential to misrepresent its source. It also made clear it was not responsible for producing the material.

Alongside the controversy over the signage, Millthorpe has also faced criticism over her campaign’s use of plastic wrap on polling booths across the electorate, with a notable concentration reported in the Albury area.

Coalition sources in Farrer have described the plastic bunting as hypocritical, pointing to Millthorpe’s environmental positions and her backing from Climate 200.

The issue has gained further attention given that plastic bunting has been banned in several jurisdictions, including Western Australia and Brisbane City Council, on the basis that it contributes to unnecessary waste.

One Liberal source told Daily Mail it looked ‘ridiculous and overwhelming’.

Early results in Farrer continue to come through, with 10 of 94 polling places reporting.

One Nation’s David Farley has surged to a dominant 49.0 per cent of the primary vote, capitalising on a dramatic collapse in support for the Coalition parties.

The combined Liberal and Nationals vote is tracking well below historical levels, with Raissa Butkowski on 8.6 per cent and Brad Robertson on 10.7 per cent, showing a significant shift in conservative support toward One Nation in these early booths.

Independent Michelle Millthorpe (pictured) is sitting in second place on 19.4 per cent.

However, these figures are largely drawn from smaller rural booths.

With Albury, the electorate’s largest population centre, yet to report, One Nation’s lead may narrow as votes continue to be counted.

Early results from the seat of Farrer are beginning to trickle in, with just one of 94 polling places, Rankins Springs, counted so far, but the initial numbers offer an intriguing snapshot of how the contest could unfold.

One Nation’s David Farley (pictured) has surged ahead on first preferences, securing 46.4 per cent of the vote in the early count. While it’s a very small sample, the result points to strong early support and positions him as a key contender as counting continues.

The Nationals’ Brad Robertson sits in second place on 20.2 per cent, a solid starting point that reflects the party’s traditional strength in regional electorates like Farrer. Independent Michelle Milthorpe has captured 13.1 per cent so far, keeping her competitive and potentially well-placed to benefit from preference flows later in the count.

Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski has recorded 9.5 per cent in this early return, well down compared to past results, though it remains far too early to draw firm conclusions.

With only a fraction of the vote counted, the race remains wide open, particularly as pre-poll, postal and preference distributions come into play.

The Australian Electoral Commission has begun counting ballots and will conduct a two-candidate preferred count between independent Michelle Milthorpe and David Farley.

Results are expected in the coming hours from all 74 election-day polling booths and 11 pre-poll centres that have been open over the past two weeks.

Early voting has been significant, with about 47,000 ballots cast at pre-poll centres.

Coalition sources say the atmosphere in Farrer has been ‘grim’ throughout both pre-polling and polling day, with Liberals and Nationals alike preparing for a likely defeat.

A loss would make history, marking the first time the seat is held by anyone outside the Liberal or National parties.

Former Opposition Leader Sussan Ley had represented Farrer since 2001, but resigned earlier this year after being replaced by Angus Taylor.

Before Ley’s victory, Farrer was held by former Nationals leader Tim Fischer, who resigned before the 2001 election.

Ley then won the seat for the Liberals, defeating the Nationals candidate.

The Farrer by-election is looming as a major political humiliation for the Coalition, with One Nation in serious contention to win its first federal lower house seat.

Voters in the sprawling south-west NSW electorate headed to the polls on Saturday to replace ousted former Liberal leader Sussan Ley who had held the seat since 2001.

Farrer takes in a vast rural stretch of NSW, including Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin, and has been held by the Liberal and National parties since it was created in 1949.

The 12-candidate ballot is widely seen as a four-way race between One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson.

But the real contest appears to have narrowed sharply, with recent polling suggesting Farley and Milthorpe are now leading the field.

One poll put One Nation on 30.9 per cent and Milthorpe on 30 per cent, ahead of the combined Liberal and National vote on 23.2 per cent.

One Nation’s David Farley, Liberal Leader Angus Taylor, Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume and Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe are all seen arriving at the polls to place their votes.