For Donald Trump, the election represents his last major test at the ballot box—and a public verdict on the opening half of his second term.
By the close of Tuesday, more than 100 million Americans are expected to have voted in House and Senate contests nationwide, deciding whether Democrats can seize control of both chambers of Congress.
Some forecasts have warned that Republicans could face a “blue wave,” or even a “blue tsunami.” Others are taking a more cautious view, noting that polling has failed before.
Conversations with voters across the country point to several concerns cutting across party lines: the cost of living, gasoline and diesel prices, and growing disillusionment over the war with Iran.
Much of the anger is directed at Trump. His approval rating recently fell to a record-low 36 percent in the average of polls, while more than 60 percent of voters said they disapproved of his performance.
The President spent the final month of the campaign in a frenzy, appearing at 25 rallies across vulnerable states in October as he worked to energize the Republican base.
Yet some analysts believe his visibility and rhetoric may have alienated independent voters, creating what one expert described as a “red undertow” that could drag Republican candidates down.
Several Republican contenders have therefore attempted a delicate balancing act—embracing elements of Trump’s agenda while separating themselves from him on the Iran war.
President Trump held two dozen rallies in October, but can his campaign appearances prevent Republican losses?
If Democrats win both the House and Senate, Trump would spend the final two years of his presidency facing a hostile Congress, with much of his legislative agenda stalled and congressional investigations into him and his family likely to intensify.
Midterm elections take place halfway through a four-year presidential term. This time, all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested, along with 36 governorships.
Republicans currently hold a 218-214 advantage in the House. Two seats are vacant, while one independent member caucuses with the GOP.
Democrats therefore need to capture only three Republican-held seats to take control. Virtually every major forecaster expects them to do so, with the central question being how large their majority could become—and how much authority that would give Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next Speaker, to contain the party’s democratic socialist faction.
As of Friday, prediction market Kalshi gave Democrats roughly a 93 percent chance of winning the House and a 71 percent chance of taking the Senate.
With a Democratic House victory viewed as highly likely, attention has focused on the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
A 50-50 Senate after November 3 would allow Republicans to retain control because Vice President JD Vance would cast any tie-breaking vote. The GOP would also continue to control the committees Democrats hope to use to investigate the President.
President Trump campaigned for Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa
To take the chamber, Democrats must achieve a net gain of four seats and reach 51.
Republicans currently hold 22 of the 35 Senate seats being contested, while Democrats hold the other 13.
The clearest Democratic route is to defend the vulnerable seat in Michigan and then win four races from a group that includes North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Texas, Kansas and South Carolina.
A Republican victory in Michigan would represent a major blow to Democrats, making the state one of the central battlegrounds of the final campaign days.
The seat is open because Democratic Senator Gary Peters chose not to seek reelection.
Abdul El-Sayed, 42, the Democratic nominee who would become America’s first Muslim senator, has become a prime target for Republicans.
Trump has attacked El-Sayed more aggressively than perhaps any other candidate, labeling him a “jihadist.” Republican nominee Mike Rogers, 63, has also sought to associate him with the Muslim Brotherhood.
El-Sayed, a former public health official, has rejected any connection to the group. He has also faced criticism over his links to controversial Twitch streamer Hasan Piker.
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has become a Republican target as Democrats fight to hold the seat
The race had been classified as a toss-up by the influential Cook Report, which said no state was causing Democrats more “heartburn” than Michigan.
Late Monday, however, the publication shifted its rating to “Lean D” as part of a forecast projecting Democratic gains of between three and six Senate seats.
Democrats are more confident about North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper holds an eight-point polling advantage over former Republican Party chairman and Trump ally Michael Whatley. Republican-aligned groups have withdrawn advertising money from the state and redirected it elsewhere.
If North Carolina turns blue, Democrats would need three additional victories from races the Cook Report rates as toss-ups: Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas and Kansas. The list could also include South Carolina, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, while Kansas has not done so since 1932.
Although economic concerns are widespread, the individual contests are being shaped by distinct local issues and the strengths—or vulnerabilities—of the candidates.
In Texas, a state Democrats have repeatedly hoped to flip, James Talarico, 37, a seminarian, has placed his Christian faith at the center of his campaign.
Some members of the religious right have accused him of misleading voters and attacked earlier comments in which he referred to Jesus as “non-binary” and said there were “six genders.”
Trump has mocked Talarico as “Talafreako,” falsely claimed he is a vegan and promoted Republican nominee Ken Paxton, who has faced marital and corruption scandals.
Texas Democrat James Talarico is seeking to turn the state blue, while President Trump has branded him “Talafreako”
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in polling. The contest has become more contentious in its final week after the Justice Department intensified a criminal investigation into whether Democrats recruited another candidate to confuse voters.
Sullivan appears on the ballot as “Dan S. Sullivan,” alongside the descriptions “Republican” and “Incumbent.” A previously little-known challenger is listed as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without a party designation.
Democrats were struggling in Maine in July after their original nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew following a sexual assault allegation, which he denies.
His replacement, Troy Jackson, a former logger, now holds a three-point lead in the polling average over Republican Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
A supporter of Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico holds a sign at a rally in Dallas, Texas
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Voters line up at a polling station in Austin, Texas
In Ohio, Jon Husted was appointed to fill JD Vance’s Senate seat after Vance became vice president. Husted is now trailing former Democratic Governor Sherrod Brown in the polls.
The contest has become one of the most expensive of the cycle. Brown had raised more than $68 million by mid-October, compared with $20 million for Husted, while outside groups have spent hundreds of millions more.
Husted, a former college football player, even received an unusual compliment from Trump about his physique. At a rally, the President said: “His a** is like a pile of muscle.”
Ohio’s gubernatorial contest has also drawn major attention, with Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy running against Democrat Amy Acton, a physician.
Ramaswamy aired one of the cycle’s most controversial advertisements, featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a “liar” and suggesting she had mental health problems.
Donna Arthur lost custody of her children after her husband, the children’s stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton.
Despite the backlash, Trump endorsed Ramaswamy and said the advertisement was like “hitting pay dirt.”
President Trump chose not to visit Kansas and Iowa over the weekend, holding “tele-rallies” instead
A billboard criticizing President Donald Trump in Toledo, Ohio
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson, a former television journalist and strong Trump supporter, sought some distance from the President in the closing days. She said she would be a “thorn” in Trump’s side if he failed to deliver for Iowa. Hinson is locked in a tie with Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic basketball gold medalist.
Kansas is one of the most surprising Senate races to become competitive, given that Trump carried the state by wide margins in three presidential elections.
As in Texas, Democrats have nominated a candidate who has made religion central to his campaign. Adam Hamilton, pastor of the state’s largest megachurch, has accused incumbent Republican Roger Marshall, a doctor, of suing patients and maintaining an out-of-state residence.
Marshall has responded by highlighting a historic abuse scandal involving Hamilton’s church and airing an advertisement accusing him of “protecting a pedophile.”
The dominant issue in Kansas is the sharp rise in diesel prices, which farmers blame on the Iran war as they work through harvest season.
Democratic hopes are also rising in deep-red South Carolina, a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024.
A poll released shortly before Election Day showed Darline Graham, the sister of the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, tied with Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician and gun-control advocate.
Trump visited South Carolina twice in eight days as he sought to rescue the Republican campaign. He called Andrews “Tranny Annie” over previous comments about transgender issues and portrayed her as a “radical lunatic” who would “take your guns.”
Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews is mounting a strong challenge to Republican Darline Graham in South Carolina
In the final days, Democratic Senate candidates led the polling averages by 3.6 points in Alaska, three points in Ohio, 2.5 points in Texas and 2.4 points in Maine.
Polling analyst Nate Silver cautioned that each margin was within what he called a “normal-sized polling error,” meaning any of the races could still swing to Republicans.
National generic-ballot polling, which measures voters’ preferred party for controlling the House, gave Democrats an advantage of about eight points.
That margin would translate into a 24-seat Democratic gain and a 239-196 House majority, according to a model developed by Alan Abramowitz, professor emeritus of political science at Emory University.
The model also projected a six-seat Democratic gain in the Senate, producing a 53-47 majority.
Accounting for the margin of error, the model gave Democrats a two-thirds chance of gaining between 15 and 33 House seats and between three and nine Senate seats.
It put the odds of Democrats gaining three or fewer Senate seats—enough to leave Republicans in control—at one in six.
Abramowitz concluded that there remained a “realistic chance that Democrats could fall short of the 51 seats they need to control the Senate.”
More than 100 million ballots are expected to be cast after months of campaigning
Historically, the president’s party often loses ground in midterm elections.
In 2006, the so-called “blue wave” delivered Democrats 31 additional House seats and ushered in Nancy Pelosi’s first tenure as Speaker.
Four years later, President Barack Obama described his party’s defeat as a “shellacking” after Democrats lost more than 60 House seats.
In 2018, with Trump in the White House, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House.
Still, the historical pattern is not absolute. During Trump’s first term, Republicans bucked the trend by adding two seats to their Senate majority.
Trump’s numbers are weaker this time. A recent poll put his net approval rating on the economy at minus 33, while his rating on inflation stood at a dismal minus 48.
Republicans have responded with a major spending effort aimed at limiting their losses.
Elon Musk alone has spent approximately $366 million supporting Republican candidates, according to campaign finance records.
Musk, who voted early in Texas, said: “The Democrats intend to cement one-party rule forever and make ‘democracy’ meaningless.”
By October 12, political advertisements from both parties and outside groups had already totaled a record $3.8 billion, with spending continuing to accelerate in the final stretch.
The largest sums were directed toward Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising spending.
