Allan Lichtman, the American University historian known for correctly forecasting nine of the past 11 presidential elections, has delivered his final prediction for the 2026 midterm elections.
Lichtman expects Democrats to take control of both chambers of Congress when voters head to the polls next Tuesday.
His two incorrect calls came in 2000, when he predicted Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush, and in 2024, when he forecast a victory for Kamala Harris.
In an interview with The Times, Lichtman said President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings, national polling, Democratic enthusiasm and early-voting figures were all pointing to a damaging night for Republicans.
‘When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,’ Lichtman told The Times. ‘It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.’
According to Lichtman, Democrats hold a seven- to 11-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, a measure he views as more dependable than polling in individual contests.
He also highlighted what he called an unusual enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.
‘Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,’ he said, adding that early voting also ‘looks pretty good for Democrats.’
Lichtman gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of winning the Senate, with a 51-49 Democratic majority emerging as his most probable result.
Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview in September 2024
A voter fills out a ballot during early voting for the 2026 midterm elections on October 25, 2026, in Cary, North Carolina
Such a result would mark a dramatic shift. Democrats began the election cycle needing a net gain of four seats to erase the Republicans’ 53-47 Senate edge, with several key races unfolding in states that have traditionally favored the GOP.
Lichtman attributed some of the Republicans’ problems to what he described as ‘really bad’ candidates, including Ken Paxton in Texas, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darline Graham in South Carolina.
‘It’s a shame — our system is founded on sovereignty of the people, not sovereignty of wealth,’ he said, criticizing the vast sums of outside money flowing into the campaigns.
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He predicts Democratic Senate victories in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while also expecting the party to retain its seat in Michigan. Alaska, he said, could also swing to Democrat Mary Peltola.
‘It’s amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points,’ he said. ‘Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that’s a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa.’
‘If you had told me the map would look like this eight months ago, I would have said you were nuts.’
Republicans now hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House, but Lichtman expects that advantage to disappear on election night.
‘Democrats need so few seats to take the majority. I give it over a 90 percent chance,’ Lichtman said.
South Carolina Republican Darline Graham campaigns with President Donald Trump in Pendleton last week
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, speaks at a campaign event on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, in Detroit
Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico addresses a rally in Lubbock ahead of the midterm elections
The historian likened the current political climate to 1966, when Democrats endured major losses under President Lyndon Johnson as opposition to the Vietnam War intensified and unrest spread nationwide.
Despite his failed 2024 prediction that Harris would win the presidency, Lichtman said he remains confident in his broader record.
‘No one has a record like that. Not even close,’ he said. ‘Nothing is 100 per cent perfect — and being 90 percent perfect or so is a pretty good track record.’
‘I’m not psychic … with a crystal ball. My system is based on history,’ Lichtman added.
He further argued that Democrats might be headed for an even more decisive victory without the unprecedented level of outside spending.
‘It would be a huge Democratic sweep if not for the intervention of the billionaires,’ Lichtman said, pointing to figures including Elon Musk. CNN reported that Musk had spent more than $400 million supporting Republicans this year by mid-October.
