CNN Data Analyst Says Midterms Are in ‘Blowout Territory’ as Democrats Gain in Polls

Democrats may be on course for a stunning midterm election victory that could wrest control of Congress from Republicans, according to CNN’s leading polling analyst.  

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten says the latest figures point to a potentially disastrous night for President Donald Trump’s party.

In a forecast delivered Sunday, Enten said Democrats have a strong chance of making major gains in the House of Representatives while also becoming the favorites to win a comfortable majority in the Senate.

With the November election now just over a week away, Enten indicated that the fight for control of Capitol Hill may be less competitive than many political observers expect.

His analysis instead points to the possibility of a painful Republican defeat that could significantly alter the balance of power in Washington.

‘The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no thousands of polls and data points,’ Enten told viewers.

‘And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! My goodness gracious!’

Enten emphasized that the striking forecast was grounded in statistical analysis, not his own political preferences.

‘And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,’ he added.

Enten began with the House race, where Democrats are seeking to harness voter dissatisfaction and take the congressional majority away from Republicans.

His model placed the odds of Democrats winning at least 230 House seats at 71 percent, a result he described as ‘a blowout.’

‘The chance of a House blowout is 71%, 71%,’ Enten explained. ‘Now, there’s a 29% chance that it doesn’t happen, right? But 71% things happen more often than 29% things! I know enough of math to know that.’

The outlook looked even worse for Republicans when Enten examined which party was most likely to reach that level of dominance.

His analysis gave Republicans only a 2 percent chance of winning at least 230 seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, were assigned a 69 percent chance of reaching the same benchmark.

‘We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats,’ Enten said.

MUST READ: Demonstrators Waving Palestinian Flags Enter Rome’s Colosseum as Protests Spread Across Europe

‘What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans.’

He called their position ‘a very, very nice 69% chance.’

Such a result would be a major political blow to Trump, potentially giving Democrats enough strength to oppose his administration’s legislative agenda and expand congressional oversight.

Enten then shifted to the Senate, where control of the chamber has been among the most closely watched contests of the election cycle.

His projections again offered Democrats an advantage.

Enten calculated a 57 percent chance that Democrats would finish with at least 52 Senate seats, giving them more than the 51 seats required for a majority and an additional cushion.

‘It’s 57% chance that Democrats win,’ he explained. ‘Not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate.’

Even so, the analyst cautioned against ruling out the Republican Party.

His forecast gave the GOP a 24 percent chance of winning at least 51 Senate seats, leaving open the possibility of a clear Republican victory despite the Democrats’ statistical lead.

Looking at the possible outcomes together, Enten estimated an 81 percent probability that either party would win a Senate majority larger than the narrowest possible margin.

That leaves a 19 percent chance of an exceptionally tight result in which control could hinge on a single race.

‘So yeah, look, there’s a 19% chance right? On the other side of this coin that we’re really down to the wire, when we’re really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night,’ Enten said. 

‘It’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance.’

He said the most probable Senate outcome was a majority for one party with at least one seat to spare, rather than an election decided by a razor-thin margin.